Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Crisis Drags; Majors Show Uneven War Impact

Oil prices rose Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the Iran conflict stalled, prolonging a severe supply disruption centered on the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.1% to settle above $96 a barrel, while Brent closed near $108, according to Rigzone. The White House indicated talks with Iran had made little progress, with the strait's daily transits near zero for weeks. Analysts note the closure is causing the biggest supply shock in history, with a loss of 1 billion barrels "all but guaranteed."

The sustained high-price environment is flowing through to major operator financials. Italy's Eni SpA raised its 2026 share buyback program by 90% to $3.29 billion, citing stronger cash flow projections driven by higher oil prices, Rigzone reported. The company increased its full-year adjusted cash flow from operations forecast by 20% to EUR 13.8 billion, based on a revised Brent price scenario of $83 per barrel. Eni stated that 60% of cash flow above its budget would be returned via buybacks until Brent reaches $90/bbl.

The ongoing crisis is creating a divergence in performance among international majors. BP Plc has emerged as the top-performing big oil stock since the war began on February 28, with shares up about 20%, Rigzone reported. In contrast, ExxonMobil's shares have declined about 1%. Analysts attribute BP's relative strength to "exceptional" trading profits and less exposure to production trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of Exxon's global output is affected.

For Bakken operators, the geopolitical premium and sustained backwardation in the futures curve underscore a tighter global physical market. However, the price rally has not uniformly boosted all major equities, with performance tied to specific operational exposures and financial strategies. The situation reinforces the market's sensitivity to Middle East supply, with demand destruction likely to spread the longer the key chokepoint remains closed. Major oil companies are set to report earnings this week, with combined profits for five supermajors expected to be around $19.2 billion for the period.