Oil Prices Surge Over 5% Amid Supply Concerns; Bakken Differential Narrows

Oil prices jumped sharply in midday trading Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate crude surging 4.96 percent to $92.66 per barrel, a gain of $4.38. The global benchmark Brent crude rose 5.44 percent to $105.65, up $5.45, according to live price data. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead, which trades at a differential to WTI, narrowed to negative $3.42 per barrel.

The midday surge follows a significant upward revision in long-term price forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. According to Rigzone, the EIA boosted its 2026 Brent crude oil spot price forecast by more than $5 per barrel and raised its 2027 Brent price forecast by $10 per barrel. This substantial revision signals stronger fundamental expectations for the market.

While the specific drivers behind today's intraday price jump are not detailed in the provided sources, such moves are typically fueled by a combination of geopolitical risk premiums and supply concerns. The broader market context includes ongoing tensions in key producing regions, which can prompt rapid buying.

For Bakken operators, the rally pushes wellhead prices closer to the $90-per-barrel threshold, a level that supports increased drilling and completion activity in the play. The narrower Bakken differential of -$3.42 versus WTI indicates strong regional demand or improved takeaway capacity, allowing producers to capture more of the headline price gain.

In related industry news, Equinor announced a discovery estimated at 3.3 million to 10.3 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent at Norway’s Gullfaks South field, according to OilPrice.com. While a relatively small find in global terms, Equinor described the resources as “profitable barrels that can help maintain activity and production on the Gullfaks field.” This highlights the industry's focus on cost-effective, incremental additions to supply from mature areas, a strategy also relevant to maximizing recovery in the Bakken formation.

The EIA's revised forecast suggests federal analysts see a tighter market balance extending through 2027. For North Dakota producers, this provides a more supportive price environment for long-term planning and capital allocation. Sustained prices above $90 for WTI, coupled with a stable differential, improve cash flows for operators and royalty owners across the Williston Basin.

Natural gas prices showed minor weakness, trading at $3.13 per MMBtu, down $0.07 on the day. This weaker gas price, relative to the strong oil move, underscores the oil-driven economics of the primarily liquids-rich Bakken play.