Oil Prices Surge Over 9% on Geopolitical Risk, Bakken Differential Holds

Oil prices surged more than 9% on Monday, July 13, driven by renewed geopolitical risk in a critical global oil transit chokepoint. According to live price data, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $78.11 per barrel, a gain of $6.70 or 9.38%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed to $83.36, up $7.35 or 9.67%.

The sharp rally follows an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that the United States would reinstate its blockade on Iran, as reported by OilPrice.com. This action forces the market to price in the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption. The surge has wiped out most of the price losses that followed a ceasefire last month.

Traders are reacting despite a lack of widespread physical supply disruptions. According to the source, crude markets rarely wait for export terminals to shut before repricing risk. Tanker owners are already assessing higher war-risk insurance premiums and longer voyage planning, which is tightening refined fuel markets like diesel and gasoline in anticipation of higher transportation costs.

The price jump provides an immediate revenue boost for Bakken shale operators. With WTI above $78, the local Bakken crude differential held steady at a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus the benchmark. This implies a Bakken wellhead price near $74.69, a significant increase from prior sessions. Such price levels improve cash flow and can support maintenance of drilling and completion activity in North Dakota's premier oil field.

In a separate market development, the United Arab Emirates informed OPEC that its oil production surged by 80 percent last month, according to Rigzone. This countervailing increase in supply from a key OPEC+ member could provide some pressure on prices in the medium term, but was overwhelmingly overshadowed by the geopolitical news on Monday.

Natural gas prices showed relative stability, dipping only $0.05 to $2.89, indicating the day's market focus was squarely on crude oil and geopolitical risk premiums.

For Bakken producers, the day's rally strengthens near-term economics. However, the market remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East, and any de-escalation could see a rapid reversal of today's gains. Operators will be watching for tangible impacts on global tanker traffic and inventory levels in the coming weeks.