OPEC+ Expected to Hold Quotas Steady as Global Energy Picture Shifts

The OPEC+ alliance is expected to keep its oil production quotas unchanged when it meets on Sunday, according to sources who spoke to Reuters. This decision comes as global energy demand rises faster than expected and geopolitical alliances between major producers continue to deepen, creating a complex backdrop for Bakken crude pricing.

According to the report, key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq are set to maintain their targeted output levels for December. The group recently completed a phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply cuts in September. However, actual production has consistently lagged behind these higher quotas due to disruptions from the Iran war affecting Gulf exports and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

For North Dakota producers, a steady OPEC+ policy provides near-term predictability in the global supply landscape. The report notes that attention within the producer group is now shifting to debates about production baselines for 2027, which will determine future quotas.

Meanwhile, a separate report highlights a significant revision in global energy demand forecasts. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) now says power demand is climbing faster than projected just three years ago, driven by residential cooling and heating needs and the AI boom. IRENA's Director-General, Francesco La Camera, stated that while the world is getting closer to its target of 11.2 terawatts (TW) of renewable capacity by 2030, this may not be sufficient for climate goals.

IRENA's revised 1.5°C Scenario now calls for around 18.4 TW of renewable power capacity by 2035. La Camera noted that "electricity demand is rising faster than expected," which underscores the ongoing role for all energy sources, including hydrocarbons, during a protracted transition. This sustained demand supports the long-term market for Bakken oil and gas.

On the geopolitical front, the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran is intensifying, particularly in nuclear energy. According to a detailed report, Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom is continuing work on Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, with 135 specialists back on site as of October 11. Construction on a second reactor unit is over 60% complete, targeting a 2029 start.

The cooperation is cemented by a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty that entered force in October 2025. Analysts cited in the report suggest Russia views this partnership as a way to strengthen its negotiating position with Washington. A deeper, sanctions-defying alliance between two major oil and gas producers could influence long-term global energy politics and market stability, factors that ultimately impact the price environment for Bakken crude.