Qatar LNG Restart Looms as Hormuz Reopening Nears, Pressuring Global Gas Prices

Qatar is mobilizing its LNG tankers in anticipation of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, a move that could soon flood the global market with new natural gas supply and pressure prices, according to vessel-tracking data reported by Bloomberg and OilPrice.com. For Bakken operators, this signals a potential widening of the region's already steep gas price discounts.

At least four Qatar-owned LNG tankers have recently headed to the Ras Laffan export complex, with a fifth en route and four more idling nearby, according to data compiled on Wednesday, June 17. The activity follows a U.S.-Iran deal and the expected imminent reopening of the critical shipping chokepoint, which has been closed since the Iran war began on February 28. Qatar has not moved any LNG tankers into the Persian Gulf since the conflict started.

State firm QatarEnergy has informed customers it could restore about 50% of its LNG production capacity within one month of safe navigation being restored through the Strait, and 80% within two months, according to Bloomberg sources. This conditional restart plan comes after the company curtailed output in early March; an LNG facility was later hit by Iranian missiles in mid-March. The remaining 20% of capacity is expected to take years to repair.

The potential return of substantial Qatari LNG volumes poses a direct challenge to the economics of natural gas production in the Bakken. North Dakota's gas already trades at a significant discount to national benchmarks due to pipeline constraints and a lack of local liquefaction export facilities. An increase in global LNG supply, particularly from a major low-cost producer like Qatar, would likely suppress benchmark prices, exacerbating the differential for Bakken producers.

This dynamic could pressure the revenues of operators in the Williston Basin, where natural gas is a coproduct of crude oil extraction. While oil remains the primary driver, weaker gas prices can negatively impact well economics and reduce the value of associated gas volumes. For royalty owners, this translates to lower payments for the gas component of production.

The situation remains fluid and entirely conditional on the U.S.-Iran deal holding and safe, sustained navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the market is clearly anticipating a shift, as evidenced by the repositioning of the Qatari tanker fleet. Bakken operators will be closely monitoring the timing and volume of the LNG comeback, as it will influence natural gas price forecasts for the second half of 2026.