Rig Count Steady at 29 as High Oil Prices Support Bakken Activity

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 29 on Wednesday, as sustained high oil prices provide a supportive backdrop for Bakken Shale operators. The stability in the rig count comes alongside a significant price rally, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settling at $95.88 per barrel, a gain of $2.12, according to live Bakken Wire data.

The Brent international benchmark followed a similar trajectory, reaching $98.10. The local Bakken crude differential, which represents the discount or premium for oil produced in the region, was reported at -$3.42 versus WTI. This places the implied price for Bakken crude at approximately $92.46 per barrel at the wellhead. Natural gas prices were reported at $3.21 per MMBtu.

Historically, the rig count serves as a leading indicator for future oil production, with a typical lag of several months between a new well being drilled and it contributing to output. A stable or rising count suggests operators are investing in new well inventory, while a declining count often foreshadows a production plateau or downturn. The current count of 29 rigs, while significantly higher than the lows seen during market downturns, remains well below the boom-era peaks of over 200.

The current environment presents a complex picture for the North Dakota production outlook. The strong price deck, with benchmarks flirting with $100 per barrel, generates robust cash flow and improves the economics for drilling new wells. However, the flat rig count over recent reporting periods indicates that major producers are likely prioritizing capital discipline, shareholder returns, and maximizing output from existing drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs).

This strategy focuses on generating free cash flow rather than pursuing volume growth at all costs. Operators are continuing to drill longer lateral wells and employ enhanced completion techniques to boost initial production rates and estimated ultimate recovery from each pad, allowing them to maintain or slightly grow output with fewer rigs.

For royalty owners and service companies in the Williston Basin, the high commodity price environment is a direct positive, translating to higher monthly royalty checks and sustained demand for pressure pumping, hauling, and other well services. The steady operational tempo implied by the 29-rig count suggests a stable near-term outlook for field activity, barring a sharp reversal in oil prices.