Shipping Waiver Extended, Survey Sees Hormuz Disruption Lingering

President Donald Trump’s administration has extended a key shipping waiver by 90 days, enabling foreign vessels to move oil and other commodities between U.S. ports through mid-August, according to Rigzone. The move, announced April 24, is designed to counter supply disruptions from the Iran war and provides certainty for domestic energy logistics.

The Jones Act waiver, now set to expire in August instead of May 17, temporarily removes restrictions for transporting crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and fertilizers on foreign-flagged ships. A White House spokeswoman said the extension "provides both certainty and stability for the U.S. and global economies," Rigzone reported. The waiver has already been used for shipments including crude oil and renewable diesel to states like California and Pennsylvania.

The extension comes as a new Dallas Fed Energy Survey update reveals most oil and gas executives expect the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane to remain disrupted for months. According to the survey update, collected from April 15-20, only 20 percent of 99 responding executives see a return to normal traffic by May. Thirty-nine percent expect normalcy by August, while 26 percent see it by November, and 14 percent expect it even later.

Executives also expressed significant concern about future risks. In the same survey update, 48 percent of 112 executives said it is "very likely" that geopolitical events will disrupt the Strait again within five years once it reopens, with another 38 percent calling it "somewhat likely." Furthermore, a majority of 70 executives surveyed expect a permanent increase in shipping costs from the Persian Gulf, with the most common response being a rise of more than $2 but not more than $4 per barrel.

Analysts warn that market assumptions are shifting rapidly. Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB, noted in an April 24 report that stability in Brent prices had rested on an assumption the Strait would reopen around May 1. "That assumption is now slowly falling apart," he stated, according to Rigzone. He calculated that every week of delay beyond May 1 theoretically adds around $5 per barrel to the rest-of-year average price for Brent crude.

The sustained disruption, pulling an estimated 13 million barrels per day from the market, continues to support elevated oil prices. Brent crude was noted at $106.3 per barrel on the morning of April 24. Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said in a statement that "lack of any clear reopening timeline continue[s] to block supply normalization, leaving a persistent risk premium in place."

For Bakken operators, the extended federal waiver aids domestic crude movement flexibility amid global turmoil, while the executive survey and analyst reports point to a prolonged period of volatile, structurally higher global oil prices influenced by geopolitical risk.