Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty, Price Risks Highlighted in Fed Survey, Analyst Notes

A majority of oil and gas executives expect future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are likely, according to an update to the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey released Thursday. The survey, which collected responses from April 15 to April 20, showed executives are uncertain about the timeline for normalization of traffic through the critical shipping lane.

According to the Dallas Fed update, 39 percent of executives from 99 responding firms expect a return to normal traffic by August. Twenty percent see a return by May, 26 percent by November, and 14 percent expect a return even later. When asked how likely geopolitical events would disrupt the Strait again within five years after it normalizes, 48 percent of executives from 112 firms said it is “very likely,” according to the survey.

Executives also anticipate increased shipping costs from the Persian Gulf. The most selected response from 70 firms was an increase of “more than $2 but not more than $4” per barrel, the Dallas Fed update outlined. One exploration and production firm executive commented in the survey that “the geopolitical events are too chaotic to provide any degree of certainty to commodity pricing or unimpeded transportation through the Strait of Hormuz at this time.”

Market analysts warn that the assumption of a swift reopening is fading, supporting higher price floors. Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), stated in a report Friday that the market’s stability around $90 per barrel for rest-of-year Brent rested on the assumption the Strait would reopen around May 1. “That assumption is now slowly falling apart,” Hvalbye warned. He noted that every week of delay beyond May 1 theoretically adds about $5 per barrel to the rest-of-year average price.

Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, highlighted in a Thursday statement that Brent was holding around $102-$103.30 per barrel. “The indefinite Iran ceasefire extension has reduced immediate escalation risk, but the naval blockade, ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, and lack of any clear reopening timeline continue to block supply normalization, leaving a persistent risk premium in place,” Aslam stated.

For Bakken operators, the prolonged disruption underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains and the potential for sustained higher benchmark prices, which can improve local realized prices. GeoPark Ltd., an operator with assets in Colombia and Argentina, noted in its Q1 2026 operational update Thursday that it expects its quarterly results to benefit from higher realized oil prices. GeoPark reported an average realized price of $60.4 per barrel in Q1 2026, versus $54.8 per barrel in Q4 2025, “reflecting stronger Brent prices and the recovery in differentials,” according to its update.

GeoPark averaged 27,249 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in Q1 2026, a decrease from Q4 2025 due to divestments in Brazil and Ecuador. Its production in Colombia totaled 25,819 boed, while Argentina contributed 1,430 boed. The company highlighted that “unusually volatile market conditions prevailed in 1Q2026, including material movements in Brent, regional differentials, and specific disruptions.”