Survey, Analysts See Extended Hormuz Disruption Raising Oil Prices

A majority of oil and gas executives expect traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz to take months to normalize, with nearly half believing future disruptions are "very likely" within five years, according to an updated survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The survey update, reported by Rigzone, collected responses from 99 executives between April 15 and April 20. Thirty-nine percent of respondents expected a return to normal traffic by August, while 26 percent forecast November and 14 percent predicted a date even later. Only 20 percent anticipated normalization by May.

The same survey found executives anticipate permanently higher shipping costs from the Persian Gulf once the military conflict ends. When asked how much costs would increase per barrel, the most selected response from 70 executives was "more than $2 but not more than $4." The second most popular response was "more than $6." One exploration and production firm executive commented in the survey, "I am not optimistic that the Iran conflict will cease in the near future," according to the Dallas Fed update.

Analysts warn that the market's previous assumption of a quick Strait reopening is collapsing, which supports higher oil prices. Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at SEB, noted in a report that the Brent front-month price was at $106.3 per barrel on April 24, a $9 per barrel jump from Monday's open. He stated that stability in "rest of year" Brent prices around $90 per barrel throughout April rested on a single assumption: that the Strait of Hormuz reopens around May 1. "That assumption is now slowly falling apart," Hvalbye warned. He calculated that every week of delay beyond May 1 theoretically adds around $5 per barrel to the rest-of-year average price.

Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, highlighted in a separate statement that Brent was holding around $102-$103.30 per barrel. He said the "indefinite Iran ceasefire extension has reduced immediate escalation risk, but the naval blockade, ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, and lack of any clear reopening timeline continue to block supply normalization, leaving a persistent risk premium in place."

Separately, international operator GeoPark Ltd reported its first-quarter 2026 production averaged 27,249 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), according to an operational update. The company noted that "unusually volatile market conditions prevailed in 1Q2026," and its combined realized oil price was $60.4 per barrel, up from $54.8 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, "reflecting stronger Brent prices." GeoPark is scheduled to release its full Q1 2026 results on May 6.