Survey: Bakken Executives See Protracted Hormuz Disruption, Higher Costs

A majority of energy executives expect traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz to return to normal by August, but see a high likelihood of future disruptions, according to an update to the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The survey, which included executives from 99 oil and gas firms, found 39 percent expect normalization by August, while 20 percent see a May return and 26 percent point to November, according to Rigzone.

The update, released in response to recent global oil market developments, also revealed deep concerns about lasting instability. When asked how likely it is that geopolitical events would disrupt the Strait again within five years after it reopens, 48 percent of 112 responding executives said it was "very likely," with another 38 percent calling it "somewhat likely," Rigzone reported.

Executives also anticipate a lasting increase in the cost of shipping oil from the Persian Gulf. In response to a survey question, the most selected cost increase range was "more than $2 but not more than $4" per barrel once conflict ends, according to the Dallas Fed update cited by Rigzone. One exploration and production firm executive commented in the survey, "I am of the opinion that the costs related to shipping oil from the Persian Gulf will increase, but by how much I am not sure," adding they were not optimistic the Iran conflict would cease soon.

These survey findings align with analyst warnings that market assumptions of a swift resolution are crumbling. Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at SEB, noted in a report that the stability of rest-of-year Brent prices around $90 per barrel in April rested on a single assumption: that the Strait of Hormuz reopens around May 1. "That assumption is now slowly falling apart," he warned, according to Rigzone. Hvalbye stated that every week of delay beyond May 1 theoretically adds around $5 per barrel to the rest-of-year average, with a mid-May reopening implying Brent closer to $100 per barrel.

Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, highlighted that Brent was holding above $102, "confirming that oil is now trading on structural constraint, not just headline emotion." He said the indefinite Iran ceasefire extension has reduced immediate escalation risk, but the ongoing Strait disruption and lack of a clear reopening timeline continue to block supply normalization, leaving a persistent risk premium in place, Rigzone reported.

In a separate operational update, GeoPark Ltd reported its first quarter 2026 production averaged 27,249 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with increases in Colombia and Argentina offset by divestments in Brazil and Ecuador. The company noted "unusually volatile market conditions prevailed in 1Q2026," and expects its Q1 results to benefit from higher realized oil prices, with its combined realized price at $60.4 per barrel, up from $54.8 in Q4 2025, according to Rigzone.

For Bakken operators, the survey and analyst commentary underscore a market environment where a prolonged supply disruption is increasingly priced in, supporting stronger realized prices but also introducing volatility and higher global cost structures that can influence differentials and midstream economics.