U.S. Claims on Middle East Oil Flows Disputed by Tanker Data

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright's claim that Middle East oil flows have normalized is being contradicted by tanker-tracking data and federal analysts, introducing volatility into the global crude markets that set the price for Bakken barrels.

On Tuesday, Secretary Wright stated on social media that "Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day," according to OilPrice.com. He further claimed total regional flows were averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day, with over 20 million barrels leaving on Sunday alone.

However, analysts and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) dispute these figures. The EIA stated in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook that it has "increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months... due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August." Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported that only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, down from an 11-ship 10-day average. Kpler's director of commodity research, Matt Smith, told CNN, “It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting.”

The conflicting narratives create significant uncertainty for global benchmark oil prices. Bakken crude, priced against these benchmarks, is directly affected by perceptions of supply disruption or normalization in the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Sustained constraints would support higher prices, while a rapid return of Middle East volumes could pressure them.

In a separate market development, U.S. LNG exporter Venture Global reported a nearly 50 percent increase in revenue, according to Rigzone. The increase was driven by LNG export volumes rising 45 percent year-on-year to 478.3 trillion British thermal units. Strong global natural gas demand and high export volumes help support associated natural gas prices in the Bakken, where gas capture and monetization remain key operational and regulatory focus areas.

For Bakken operators, the situation underscores the basin's exposure to geopolitical risk and official statements that may not align with on-the-ground data. The price differential between Bakken crude and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark can widen or narrow based on such global supply shocks. The disparity between U.S. government assurances and analyst data suggests a volatile trading environment may persist through August, impacting hedging decisions and wellhead economics across the Williston Basin.