WTI Holds Near $98 as Bakken Differential Widens Slightly

Front-month WTI crude futures traded at $98.13 per barrel on Thursday, down 13 cents for the session, while global benchmark Brent crude was at $104.89. The slight pullback comes as the market digests mixed signals on supply and demand.

The price for Bakken crude at the Clearbrook, Minnesota, hub was quoted at a discount of $3.42 per barrel to WTI, according to live price data. This differential is a key metric for North Dakota producers, determining the netback value of their barrels after transportation costs.

In a related development, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which included a forecast for diesel prices. According to Rigzone, the EIA projects the on-highway diesel fuel price will average $5.36 per gallon in the second quarter of 2026.

High diesel prices, driven by strong demand and tight refinery capacity for distillates, typically provide underlying support for crude oil markets. Diesel is a critical fuel for industrial, agricultural, and transportation sectors. Sustained high distillate cracks improve refinery margins, encouraging runs and supporting demand for crude feedstocks like Bakken light sweet oil.

For Bakken operators, the current price environment remains constructive. WTI holding above $98 per barrel, even with a modest daily decline, combined with a manageable differential under $3.50, translates to strong wellhead economics. The EIA's diesel forecast suggests refinery demand for light sweet crude to produce distillates should remain robust through the current quarter.

The minor day-on-day price decreases in crude and natural gas, which fell 2 cents to $3.13 per MMBtu, indicate a pause after recent gains rather than a shift in trend. Market participants are likely balancing geopolitical supply risks against concerns over the pace of global economic growth.

The stability in prices at elevated levels supports continued capital discipline and free cash flow generation for North Dakota producers. Operators can maintain production and return capital to shareholders without the need for significant acceleration in drilling activity. The high diesel price forecast also benefits the state's agricultural and trucking sectors, which are integral to the local economy, though it increases operational costs.