WTI Tops $94 Amid Supply Concerns; Guyana Exports Poised to Cross 1 Million Bpd

Front-month WTI crude oil futures rose 1.14% on Tuesday, October 13, to settle at $94.81 per barrel, a gain of $1.07. In contrast, the global Brent benchmark edged down $0.28 to $106.37.

The mixed price action came as traders weighed steady demand against growing non-OPEC supply. According to live data, the price for Bakken crude at the Clearbrook, Minnesota, hub was discounted by $3.42 per barrel versus WTI.

Natural gas futures also saw a significant move, climbing $0.16 to $3.32 per million British thermal units.

A key development influencing the supply outlook is the rapid rise of Guyana as a major exporter. According to a report from OilPrice.com, Guyana is set to surpass one million barrels per day in crude oil exports for the first time this December. The country's December preliminary loading schedule includes 33 million barrels, equating to roughly 1.06 million bpd.

This milestone is remarkable for a nation that produced virtually no oil seven years ago. The growth is driven by ExxonMobil's developments in the offshore Stabroek Block. The latest addition is the Uaru project, centered on the new Errea Wittu FPSO vessel, which is scheduled to export its first crude in mid-December.

The influx of new supply from Guyana and other non-OPEC+ producers provides a counterbalance to production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance and ongoing geopolitical tensions. For Bakken operators, sustained high global prices above $90 for WTI support continued drilling and completion activity in the Williston Basin.

However, the widening Bakken differential, which reflects the cost of transporting crude to major refining hubs, indicates that regional pipeline and takeaway capacity remains a critical factor for local profitability. A discount of $3.42 per barrel means Bakken producers realize a price of approximately $91.39 for their crude.

The steady climb in natural gas prices offers a positive signal for associated gas production in the Bakken, where gas is often a byproduct of oil-directed drilling.

Looking ahead, Guyana's supply growth is expected to continue. According to the OilPrice.com report, the Whiptail project is scheduled to start in late 2027, and the Hammerhead development is slated for 2029, which could push the country's production capacity toward 1.3 million bpd. This expanding global supply will remain a key variable for the long-term price environment facing North Dakota producers.