Sunday, May 17, 2026

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge Past $100 on Supply Concerns, EIA Raises Forecasts

Front-month WTI crude oil futures surged 4.23% to settle at $101.02 per barrel on Friday, May 16, a gain of $4.10. The global benchmark, Brent crude, rose 3.35% to $109.26 per barrel. Natural gas also edged higher, adding 7 cents to $2.96 per MMBtu. The sharp rally pushed North Dakota's Bakken crude price to approximately $97.60 per barrel, based on a differential of -$3.42 versus the WTI benchmark. This price level represents a significant uplift in cash flow for producers across the Williston Basin. The price jump reflects mounting market concerns over global supply security and tightening inventories. While specific daily catalysts are not detailed in the provided sources, such moves often correlate with geopolitical tensions, unexpected supply disruptions, or data pointing to stronger-than-expected demand. In a related development, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest oil price forecasts in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published on...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Rig Report

North Dakota rig count holds at 22, flat for a month

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 22 units on Sunday, May 17, 2026, according to live data from Bakken Wire. There were no rigs added, removed, or moved since the previous day. The current count represents a decrease of one rig from one week ago, when 23 rigs were active on May 10. Compared to one month ago, however, the state's activity is unchanged, also sitting at 22 rigs on April 17. This stability over the past month comes amid a mixed landscape for national drilling. The broader U.S. rig count showed modest growth last week, according to the Baker Hughes rotary rig count reported on May 15. The national count increased by 3 units to reach 551 rigs running. This gain was driven primarily by oil-directed activity, with rigs drilling for oil rising by 5 to 415. Gas-directed rigs fell by 1 to 128. On a...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Daily Activity

DMR Daily Activity Report Shows No New Filings for Saturday

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) daily activity report for Saturday, May 16, 2026, showed no new filings, according to the agency's data release. The daily report typically lists new drilling permits approved, well completions reported, wells spudded (drilling commenced), and notices of plugged wells. The absence of new activity filings is a normal occurrence, particularly on weekends and holidays when regulatory and company offices are typically closed. For Bakken operators and service companies, the report provides a near-real-time snapshot of regulatory activity and field operations. While a day with no filings indicates a pause in new administrative submissions, it does not reflect ongoing production or drilling work at existing well sites. The next report, expected Monday, will provide an updated summary of permitting and drilling activity across the Williston Basin.

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Regulatory

Scottish Greens Renew Push for Windfall Tax on Oil Profits

The Scottish Greens party has renewed its call for the UK government to bolster taxation on extraordinary profits by oil and gas companies, according to a report from Rigzone. The party advocates using the tax collection to help households pay energy bills. While this regulatory push is specific to the UK, it represents a continued global trend of political scrutiny on oil and gas industry profits. Such international developments can influence investor sentiment and regulatory discussions worldwide, including in the United States. For Bakken operators in North Dakota, the primary regulatory and tax environment is governed by state and federal US policies. However, heightened global discourse around "windfall" taxes can contribute to political pressure for similar measures elsewhere, potentially affecting the long-term investment climate for independent producers. The Bakken formation is a major oil-producing region where operators are sensitive to changes in fiscal policy that impact capital availability and project...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Global Markets

Global Energy Shifts Present Mixed Signals for Bakken Crude

Oil prices surged last week as traders focused on tightening crude supplies and fragile ceasefire conditions in the Middle East, according to Rigzone. This immediate price support provides a favorable near-term backdrop for Bakken producers in North Dakota, where wellhead economics are directly tied to global crude benchmarks. However, a separate technological development points to a longer-term challenge for fossil fuel demand. Researchers in China have made a major step forward in developing an alternative alkaline all-iron flow battery, as reported by OilPrice.com. The battery, developed by the Institute of Metal Research under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is noted for using low-cost, abundant materials like iron and a non-flammable, water-based electrolyte. It is capable of over 6,000 charge-discharge cycles, equivalent to around 16 years of daily use, according to a report in Advanced Energy Materials. Such advancements are aimed at accelerating the deployment of renewable energy by providing cheaper,...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Global Markets

Global Tensions Fuel Shale Rush, Oil Price Volatility

The failure of major powers to secure the Strait of Hormuz is escalating global oil market instability, according to a report from OilPrice.com. Despite a summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders, no coordinated strategy or diplomatic breakthrough with Iran emerged to reopen the critical waterway. OilPrice.com reported that the perceived optimism from the meeting was a fallacy, with crude oil prices climbing again and tanker markets remaining volatile. The source indicated the strait is becoming structurally unstable, an alarming development for global trade security. This instability is fueling a global race to tap resources outside conflict zones. OilPrice.com reported that local and international energy companies are vying for additional exploration blocks in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale basin, partly due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz. The basin is seen as a de-risked area with proven geology far from Middle East shipping corridors. The Vaca Muerta shale play is estimated to...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Operator News

International News Roundup: Pemex CEO Exits, UAE Expands Export Route

Petroleos Mexicanos Chief Executive Officer Víctor Rodríguez Padilla is stepping down, according to a report from Rigzone published May 16. The report noted that Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has tapped the company's current CFO to run the state-owned oil giant. Changes in leadership at major national oil companies can influence global production strategies and market sentiment. In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates will double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by next year, Rigzone reported on May 15. This planned expansion of alternative export routes is aimed at reducing reliance on the critical maritime chokepoint. Separately, former U.S. President Donald Trump said he stopped short of asking Chinese leader Xi Jinping to pressure Iran to ease traffic through the strait, but predicted Xi would do so, according to another Rigzone report from May 15. For Bakken operators and royalty owners, stability and capacity...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Industry Resilience, Price Dynamics Highlight Energy Roundup

Upstream employment in Texas increased in March, according to the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO). The association's president, Ed Longanecker, stated the rise "demonstrates the strength and resilience of our industry," Rigzone reported on May 15. While specific to Texas, this trend reflects a stabilizing national oilfield services sector that supports Bakken production operations. Analysts are questioning why crude oil prices have not surged following recent USA-Iran conflict, Rigzone reported in a separate May 15 article. The news service spoke with analysts from Standard Chartered, Wood Mackenzie, and the American Enterprise Institute. The muted price response suggests global markets are adequately supplied, potentially limiting near-term price upside for Bakken crude. In international operations, Perenco has restarted gas production at the Davy field in the UK North Sea. The field resumed flows at approximately 14 million cubic feet per day, Rigzone reported on May 15. The restart follows...

☀️Morning Wire·May 17

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge Past $101, Bakken Spread Holds Steady

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged past the $101 per barrel mark on Sunday, May 17, trading at $101.02 for a daily gain of $4.10, or 4.23%. The global Brent benchmark followed, rising $3.54 to $109.26 per barrel. Natural gas prices also saw a modest increase, up $0.07 to $2.96 per MMBtu. The sharp rally in crude prices provides a robust near-term price signal for operators in the Bakken formation. The Bakken differential, the discount at which Bakken crude trades versus the WTI benchmark, was recorded at -$3.42. This translates to a wellhead price of approximately $97.60 per barrel for Bakken producers based on the current WTI price. While specific drivers for today's price movement are not detailed in the provided sources, such volatility often reflects geopolitical tensions, changes in supply expectations, or shifts in global demand forecasts. The price surge follows the recent release of the U.S. Energy...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Regulatory

Scottish Greens Renew Push for Windfall Profit Tax on Oil and Gas

A political party in the United Kingdom has renewed calls for higher taxes on oil and gas company profits, according to a report from Rigzone. The Scottish Greens are pushing the UK government to bolster taxation on what they term "windfall" profits from the sector. The party advocates using the increased tax collection to help households pay energy bills, Rigzone reported. While this proposal is specific to UK politics and North Sea operators, such regulatory movements in major producing regions are closely watched by the global industry. For Bakken operators, these developments underscore the persistent political and regulatory risk associated with periods of strong commodity prices. Proposals for windfall profit taxes, though currently a foreign concept, can gain traction in various jurisdictions when public sentiment focuses on energy affordability. North Dakota producers are no strangers to state-level tax debates, particularly concerning the extraction tax and its triggers. The news serves...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Global Markets

Global Energy Shifts Present Complex Landscape for Bakken

Global energy developments this week present a mixed picture for North Dakota's Bakken formation, highlighting both long-term challenges to fossil fuel demand and near-term support for crude prices. A significant battery technology advancement reported from China could accelerate the renewable energy transition, while ongoing supply concerns are buoying oil markets. According to a report published in Advanced Energy Materials and covered by OilPrice.com, Chinese researchers have made a major step forward in developing an alkaline all-iron flow battery. The battery is capable of over 6,000 charge-discharge cycles without measurable capacity decay, equivalent to around 16 years of daily use. Crucially, the battery uses low-cost, abundant iron—which is around 80 times cheaper than raw lithium—and a water-based electrolyte that cannot explode. This technology is highly appealing to wind and solar energy producers, as increasing storage capacity simply requires constructing larger tanks. For Bakken operators, such advancements underscore the accelerating pace of...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Global Markets

Global Energy Shifts: Argentina Shale Booms, Mexico Opens Renewables, Hormuz Paralysis Persists

International energy investment is pivoting toward alternative oil sources and new power sectors, according to global reports, as paralysis in a key global shipping chokepoint underscores supply risks. The developments highlight a global search for stability and opportunity outside traditional conflict zones. The escalating confrontation around Iran and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is fueling market instability with no diplomatic solution in sight, OilPrice.com reported. A recent summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders failed to produce a coordinated security mechanism or a breakthrough with Tehran, leaving the central artery for global hydrocarbon trade structurally unstable. This paralysis is contributing to nervous oil markets and volatile tanker rates. In response, major energy companies are rushing to secure resources in de-risked basins far from the Middle East, according to a separate OilPrice.com report. Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play is a top target, with a major licensing round for 15 blocks...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Operator News

US Rig Count Gains 3; Shell Payments Highlight Global Scale

North American drilling activity showed modest growth for the week ended May 15, 2026, with the US rig count increasing by 3 units to reach 551 rigs running, according to Baker Hughes data reported by OGJ. Canada's rig count held steady at 124 units, bringing the continental total to 675 rigs. The weekly US gains were driven by oil-directed rigs, which rose by 5 to 415. Gas-directed rigs fell by 1 to 128. On a year-over-year basis, the US count is down 25 units from the 576 rigs working this time last year. US land rigs, which include Bakken operations, led the advance, gaining 4 units to reach 531 rigs working. Horizontal drilling, the dominant method in shale plays like the Bakken, increased by 3 rigs to 484. State-level changes saw Texas gain 5 rigs, New Mexico add 1, and Oklahoma add 1. Louisiana posted the largest decline, falling 3...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Geopolitical, Infrastructure Shifts Impact Global Oil Flows

Global pipeline and export developments are reshaping the flow of oil, with implications for Bakken producers competing in international markets. The United Arab Emirates plans to double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by 2027, according to Rigzone. This major infrastructure project would reduce reliance on the critical Middle Eastern chokepoint, potentially altering global crude trade patterns. Separately, former President Donald Trump stated he stopped short of asking Chinese leader Xi Jinping to pressure Iran to ease traffic through the strategic strait, but predicted Xi would do so, Rigzone reported. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit for seaborne oil, and geopolitical tensions there can influence global price benchmarks tied to Bakken crude. While these developments focus on international routes, domestic energy employment shows strength. Texas upstream employment rose in March, with Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association President Ed Longanecker stating the...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Regulatory

Analysts Weigh In on Oil Price Stagnation Despite Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued in the wake of the USA-Iran conflict, according to a recent analysis from Rigzone. The publication consulted multiple industry analysts to understand the market dynamics. Analysts from Standard Chartered, Wood Mackenzie, and the American Enterprise Institute provided insights, Rigzone reported. The consensus points to several key factors preventing a sustained price surge despite geopolitical instability. A primary reason cited is the current ample supply in the global oil market. This surplus, including significant production from non-OPEC+ countries, has created a buffer that has absorbed the immediate shock of the conflict. Furthermore, the coordinated release of crude from strategic petroleum reserves by consuming nations has added to available supply. Concerns about the strength of global oil demand are also weighing on the market, according to the analyst commentary summarized by Rigzone. Economic headwinds in major economies are seen as capping the upside for crude prices,...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

Production Data

Bakken Rig Count Holds at 22 as Oil Prices Surge Above $100

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held at 22 on Sunday, May 17, 2026, even as crude oil prices posted strong gains. The current rig level provides a key indicator for the near-term production outlook in the Bakken formation, suggesting a period of stable output. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged to $101.02 per barrel, a daily increase of $4.10 or 4.23%. Brent crude followed, rising to $109.26. Despite these price levels, which often incentivize increased drilling activity, the Bakken's rig count has remained consistent. The local Bakken crude price differential was $-3.42 versus WTI, according to live data. Natural gas prices were recorded at $2.96. Historically, the active rig count is a leading indicator for future oil production in North Dakota, with a typical lag of several months between drilling activity and new wells coming online. A steady rig count in the low 20s suggests operators are maintaining a...

🔆Midday Wire·May 17

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Steady with WTI at $101, Bakken Discount Holds at -$3.42

Front-month crude oil futures were flat in quiet Sunday trading, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) holding at $101.02 per barrel and Brent crude steady at $109.26, according to live price data. The Bakken crude differential, a key metric for North Dakota producers, was unchanged at a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus the WTI benchmark. The lack of price movement reflects typical weekend trading liquidity and an absence of fresh market-moving news. The stability in the differential suggests consistent pipeline and rail takeaway capacity from the Williston Basin. For Bakken operators, the current price environment translates to a realized price of approximately $97.60 per barrel for Bakken-quality crude when factoring in the local differential. This level continues to support active drilling and completion programs in the region's core counties. Longer-term price context was provided earlier this week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency released its latest oil...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Rig Report

Bakken Rig Count Holds at 22, Unchanged From Month Ago

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 22 on Sunday, May 17, 2026, with no changes reported from the previous day, according to live data from Bakken Wire. The figure represents no change from one month prior, when 22 rigs were also active on April 17. The current activity level is down by one rig from one week ago, when 23 rigs were reported active on May 10. The stability in the Williston Basin aligns with a modestly positive trend in the broader U.S. drilling market this week. According to Baker Hughes's rotary rig count for the week ended May 15, 2026, the total U.S. rig count increased by 3 units to reach 551 rigs running, as reported by Bing News. The national gains were driven by oil-directed activity, with rigs drilling for oil rising by 5 to 415. On a year-over-year basis, however, the U.S. count is...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Regulatory

Scottish Greens Urge UK Windfall Tax Expansion

The Scottish Green Party has renewed its call for the UK government to expand taxation on windfall oil and gas profits, according to a report from Rigzone. The party advocates using the revenue to assist households with energy bills. While this push is a UK-specific political development, it underscores a persistent theme of fiscal uncertainty facing oil and gas producers in major producing regions worldwide. The concept of taxing "extraordinary" or "windfall" profits during periods of high commodity prices has been debated and implemented in various forms across multiple jurisdictions. For Bakken operators, the news serves as a reminder of the potential for shifting fiscal landscapes. Although North Dakota's tax regime is set at the state level, sustained political pressure for increased energy sector taxation in other parts of the world can influence broader investment sentiment and policy discussions. The energy industry often cites regulatory and fiscal stability as key...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Global Markets

Global Supply Risks Boost Oil Prices, Major LNG Deal Announced

Oil prices surged this week as traders focused on tightening global crude supplies and fragile ceasefire conditions in the Middle East, according to Rigzone. This price support, driven by geopolitical risk, provides a favorable revenue environment for producers in North Dakota's Bakken formation. While the specific price increase was not quantified in the report, the upward momentum signals stronger fundamentals for U.S. light sweet crude benchmarks, to which Bakken oil is closely linked. Higher prices can improve cash flow for operators, potentially supporting drilling activity and well completion schedules in the Williston Basin. In a separate global development, Japanese energy company INPEX has agreed to acquire PetroChina's stake in the Browse gas project offshore Western Australia, Rigzone reported. The project, which has not yet reached the front-end engineering design (FEED) stage, plans to deliver gas from the Browse Basin to the existing Karratha Gas Plant. This transaction highlights continued international...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Global Markets

Q1 Upstream M&A Hits $38B As Experts Warn Of Consolidation "Tsunami"

U.S. upstream merger and acquisition activity surged to $38 billion in the first quarter of 2026, marking the highest quarterly total in two years, according to a report from Enverus Intelligence Research cited by OilPrice.com. The data indicates the shale patch has likely entered another consolidation wave, supercharged by a higher-for-longer oil price environment. Andrew Dittmar, an analyst at Enverus, stated in a May 13 report that the industry is "likely heading into another tsunami of consolidation." He cited strong appetite from public exploration and production companies for both corporate mergers and private asset sales. The quarter's activity was highlighted by two mega-deals, though a sharp slowdown occurred in March due to volatility from Middle East conflict. The largest transaction was the all-stock merger between Devon Energy and Coterra Energy, valued at $25 billion. The deal created a combined enterprise value of roughly $58 billion, giving the new company a...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Operator News

Mexico Energy Reforms Draw $4.75B in Renewables, Pemex CEO Exits

Mexico's energy sector is undergoing a significant policy shift under President Claudia Sheinbaum, opening the door to billions in private investment for renewable power generation. According to OilPrice.com, a new National Energy Reform announced in March 2025 encourages private sector participation, aiming to add 22 GW of new power generation capacity by 2030 and increase clean energy's share to 40 percent. The reform marks a reversal from prior policies of energy nationalization. It mandates that at least 54 percent of the national grid's electricity must come from the state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), leaving 46 percent for private producers. Mexico’s Energy Minister Luz Elena González announced in December that private companies plan to invest $4.75 billion to build 20 renewable energy projects, adding 3.32 GW of generation and 1.48 GW of storage capacity. These projects include 15 solar plants and five wind farms across 11 states, with most expected to...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Global Oil Flow Developments Highlight Export Route Importance for Bakken

The United Arab Emirates plans to double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by 2027, according to a Rigzone report. The strategic chokepoint, a vital conduit for global seaborne oil trade, has long been a focal point of geopolitical risk. For landlocked production basins like North Dakota's Bakken, the development underscores the importance of securing diverse and reliable export pathways to global markets. Separately, former President Donald Trump commented on the strait's stability, stating he stopped short of asking Chinese leader Xi Jinping to pressure Iran regarding traffic through the passage but predicted Xi would do so, Rigzone reported. Such geopolitical statements highlight the ongoing volatility associated with key maritime transit routes, which can influence global oil price benchmarks and market access. While these developments are international, they resonate in the Williston Basin. Bakken crude, primarily transported via pipelines and rail to coastal terminals, competes...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17

Regulatory

Analysts Cite Market Fundamentals Over Geopolitics in Oil Price Response

Despite a recent military conflict between the United States and Iran, global oil prices have not surged significantly, according to analysts cited by Rigzone. The news service spoke with experts from Standard Chartered, Wood Mackenzie, and the American Enterprise Institute for its May 15 report. The analysts pointed to underlying market fundamentals as the primary reason for the contained price response. According to Rigzone's summary, the experts emphasized factors such as current supply levels and demand conditions over the immediate geopolitical event. For Bakken operators and North Dakota's oil industry, this analysis underscores the continued importance of local production efficiency and cost management. The Bakken formation, a major contributor to U.S. supply, operates within this global framework where fundamental inventories and economic demand often outweigh short-term geopolitical shocks. The reported analysis suggests that, absent a severe disruption to physical supply flows, the market's reaction to conflict can be muted. This...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 17