Canada May Keep Trans Mountain, Trump Eyes DAPL Expansion

The Canadian government is reconsidering plans to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline, a shift that could solidify a major new export route for North American crude with implications for Bakken producers. According to OilPrice.com, the head of the government entity that owns the pipeline, Elizabeth Wademan, said this week that the prior narrative of returning the asset to private hands was from "a different market and a different time."

The expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) launched in May 2024 at triple its original capacity, moving 890,000 barrels daily. Its primary destination is the vast Asian market, marking a strategic pivot for Canadian crude away from near-total reliance on the United States. OilPrice.com reported that by October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China, with average flows to China reaching 207,000 barrels daily between the pipeline's launch and spring 2025.

Wademan called the pipeline a "strategically important asset" and suggested it could be expanded further with more "energy corridors," according to the Financial Post report cited by OilPrice.com. She noted the asset is "incredibly profitable" as Canadian crude prices approach $90 per barrel, adding merit to the government holding onto it.

This Canadian development coincides with renewed U.S. pipeline activity that could directly impact the Bakken. A separate report from Bing News outlines a bid under the Trump administration to create a "patchwork of smaller, connected projects using existing pipe" to resurrect the Keystone XL pipeline and extend the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) north to Canada.

For North Dakota, the potential northern extension of DAPL represents a significant infrastructure development. DAPL is the primary conduit for moving Bakken crude to market, and an extension could open new routing options and connections to the Canadian system. The reported plan to resurrect Keystone XL through connected projects also indicates a renewed focus on cross-border pipeline capacity.

The success and possible further expansion of the state-owned Trans Mountain pipeline creates a competitive landscape for reaching Pacific markets. While TMX primarily carries Canadian crude, its operation and profitability demonstrate the high global demand for North American oil, which supports the broader market for Bakken production. The concurrent U.S. efforts to expand northward infrastructure suggest a response to this reshaped export geography, aiming to better integrate Bakken supply into continental and global networks.