Executives See Modest US Output Rise from War, BP Profits Surge

Most U.S. oil executives expect domestic production to increase in response to the war in Iran, according to an update to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey released last week. The most selected response for 2026 was an increase of "more than 0 but not more than 0.25 million barrels per day," Rigzone reported.

Executives from 115 oil and gas firms responded to the survey update between April 15 and April 20. For 2027, the most selected response was a larger increase of "more than 0.25 million barrels per day but not more than 0.50 million barrels per day." The second most selected response for 2026 was "no change," according to the survey data.

In comments included in the survey, one exploration and production executive cited extreme price volatility, stating, "Even after nearly a month of oil above $90 per barrel, rig counts declined, signaling little confidence that prices will hold." The executive added that closing the supply gap from the Iran conflict would require greater certainty and higher 2027 future prices to incentivize more rig and frack deployments.

Another E&P executive commented on market signals, saying, "the difference between the gyration of paper market oil prices versus what seems to be substantially higher physical prices sends conflicting signals to operators who cannot plan rigs and capital budgets when prices swing wildly."

BP, the first supermajor to report first-quarter earnings, more than doubled its profit amid the war-driven market volatility, OilPrice.com reported Tuesday. BP's underlying replacement cost profit was $3.2 billion for Q1 2026, compared to $1.4 billion a year earlier. The company cited an "exceptional oil trading contribution" and stronger midstream performance.

BP's oil and gas output was broadly flat compared to Q4 2025, as higher production in the Gulf of America and strong performance in its U.S. shale business, BPX Energy, offset Middle East disruptions. BPX Energy plans to boost its shale production by 8% to 500,000 boe/d this year, according to OilPrice.com.

In a separate development, European majors Eni and Repsol are planning to increase natural gas production in Venezuela, according to a second OilPrice.com report. The companies aim to raise output at their Cardon IV field from 580 million cubic feet per day to 645 million cubic feet per day. Both firms have received U.S. licenses to operate in Venezuela following the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

For Bakken operators, the Dallas Fed survey suggests industry expectations for a measured production response to the ongoing conflict, contingent on price stability. BP's results highlight the profitability of strong U.S. shale operations in a volatile market, while international activity continues to adjust to geopolitical changes.