Global Energy Shift Pressures Fossil Demand, Straits Tensions Loom

A record surge in renewable energy generation cut India's fossil fuel power use by 3.3% in 2025, according to an analysis by clean energy think tank Ember. The data, reported by OilPrice.com, shows India's fossil fuel-powered generation dipped by 52 terawatt-hours last year due to milder weather and a sharp rise in clean electricity.

Renewable power generation from solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy in India saw a record increase of 98 TWh, soaring 24% over 2024. Solar and wind both set new individual records, rising 37% and 28% respectively. Ember noted that beyond temporary factors like weather, the record renewable additions point to a "decreasing reliance on fossil generation to meet growing electricity demand."

Despite this shift, India continues to rely on coal as a pillar of its power system. Amid a current gas crisis, the country's Power Minister last month ordered coal-fired plants to run at full capacity for three months starting April 1 to meet anticipated summer peak demand. India also plans to nearly quadruple its solar capacity and triple its wind assets within ten years, according to its Central Electricity Authority.

Separately, Rigzone reported that alarm bells will ring loudly if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen during May. SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop issued the warning, highlighting continued global supply concerns linked to the critical oil transit chokepoint. Any prolonged closure directly impacts global crude oil prices and market stability.

In other international energy news, Ukrainian agribusiness Kernel secured a $45-million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for a solar project. The funds will support a 106 MW solar farm with energy storage in southern Ukraine, Rigzone reported.

For Bakken operators and royalty owners, these global developments underscore a complex market landscape. India's accelerated renewable build-out represents a long-term structural headwind for global fossil fuel demand, even as the country's near-term coal use remains robust. Simultaneously, the tense situation around the Strait of Hormuz serves as a reminder of the geopolitical risks that can swiftly tighten physical supplies and support crude prices, benefiting domestic producers. The focus for North Dakota will remain on balancing these competing forces of growing non-OPEC supply, evolving demand patterns, and persistent supply chain vulnerabilities.