Global Geopolitical Risks Mount as Saudi Oil, Strait of Hormuz Face Threats

Rystad Energy warned today that 2.5 million barrels per day of Saudi oil production is at risk as Houthi rebels “threaten to enact a naval blockade,” according to a report published by Rigzone. The warning comes as another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, with renewed hostilities emptying the waterway, Rigzone reported separately.

The developments compound global supply concerns for Bakken operators and royalty owners, who have benefited from elevated crude prices over the past year. Any disruption to Middle East flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil—could tighten markets further, supporting North Dakota’s light sweet crude differentials.

The Houthi threat to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea adds a second layer of maritime risk. According to Rigzone, the attack in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat “heightened regional maritime risks,” potentially forcing tankers to avoid key shipping lanes and increasing transport costs for Middle Eastern crude.

In a separate development, BP signed an agreement to divest its retail and electric vehicle charging businesses in Austria, including 250 branded retail sites, to Volenergy as part of its simplification drive, Rigzone reported. While the transaction is European-focused, it reflects a broader trend of international oil majors streamlining portfolios—a shift that could affect global capital allocation and, indirectly, Bakken investment appetite.

The Bakken formation, North Dakota’s primary oil-producing region, remains one of the most capital-intensive onshore basins in the U.S. Any sustained supply disruption from the Middle East would likely accelerate domestic drilling activity, though operators remain cautious about adding rigs without stronger price signals. Today’s reports underscore the fragile balance between geopolitical risk and the basin’s production outlook.