North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 22 as Oil Prices Top $103

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 22 on Monday, May 18, 2026, as benchmark oil prices strengthened, providing a snapshot of current operator activity in the Bakken. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price was $103.01 per barrel, a gain of $1.99 or 1.97% on the day, while the global Brent benchmark traded at $111.08. The Bakken oil differential was -$3.42 per barrel versus WTI.

The current rig count, a leading indicator of future production, has remained in a narrow range in recent months. This stability at a relatively low level suggests that Bakken operators are maintaining disciplined capital programs despite the high-price environment. Historically, the number of active rigs in North Dakota has a direct, though lagged, correlation with oil production trends. A sustained increase in the rig count typically precedes a rise in output by several months, while a stable or declining count often signals a plateau or eventual decline.

With prices well above the economic thresholds for most Bakken wells, the focus for many operators has shifted to maximizing cash flow and shareholder returns rather than aggressive volume growth. The current rig activity is likely concentrated on completing drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and high-grading the most productive acreage. Natural gas prices, another key revenue stream for producers, were at $3.02 per MMBtu.

The sustained high oil prices provide a favorable revenue backdrop for existing production and for the wells being brought online by the current rig fleet. However, the modest rig count implies that significant near-term production growth is unlikely without a material change in operator strategy or a further sustained price increase. Production levels in the coming months will largely reflect the efficiency gains and completion techniques applied to the wells drilled by the current active rigs.

For royalty owners and state revenues, the combination of strong prices and stable production translates to continued robust cash flows. The state's production outlook for the remainder of 2026 appears set for steady output, barring any major price corrections or significant shifts in operator activity. Market observers will watch for any movement in the rig count as the primary signal for a change in the production trajectory.