North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 26 as Oil Prices Firm

North Dakota's oil drilling activity held steady this week with 26 active rigs, according to live Bakken Wire data. The count remains near multi-year lows, suggesting operators are maintaining a disciplined approach to capital spending despite a recent firming in oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $79.83 per barrel on Tuesday, a gain of $1.69 or 2.16% from the prior session. The international Brent benchmark saw a stronger move, rising 3.47% to $86.19. The Bakken crude differential narrowed to a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus WTI. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.87 per MMBtu.

The current rig count is a critical leading indicator for future oil production in the Bakken formation. Historically, a sustained increase in the number of drilling rigs precedes a rise in output several months later, as new wells are completed and brought online. Conversely, a low and stable rig count, as seen now, typically forecasts flat to moderately declining production in the near term.

With 26 rigs running, the state's production is likely to remain in a holding pattern. Operators are focusing on generating free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders rather than pursuing aggressive volume growth. The improved oil price environment, with WTI approaching $80, provides a more supportive backdrop for maintenance-level drilling and completion of existing drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells.

The Bakken differential, while still negative, is not at historically wide levels, which helps improve realizations for producers selling into the local market. The stronger Brent price also supports global sentiment and exports.

For royalty owners and service companies, the current data suggests a period of stability rather than a boom or bust. Production declines from existing wells will be offset by new wells from the current rig fleet, likely keeping the state's output near recent levels. Any significant uptick in production would require a material and sustained increase in drilling activity, which current capital allocation strategies do not yet signal.