Oil Falls on Iran De-Escalation Hopes; Bakken Differential -$3.42

North Dakota's Bakken crude was trading $3.42 below WTI on Friday morning, with the U.S. benchmark at $90.11, down $0.41, or 0.45%, after oil markets pared a war premium tied to the Iran conflict, according to live price data and OilPrice.com.

Brent crude was at $97.65, down $0.64, or 0.65%. Natural gas was at $3, up $0.05. The Bakken differential of -$3.42 means Williston Basin barrels were priced that much below WTI.

OilPrice.com reported December WTI was headed for one of its roughest weekly losses in months after shedding $11.37, or 11.10%, from its opening price of $102.39. The contract hit a weekly high of $102.75 before breaking sharply to $86.65, and traded near $91.58 early Friday.

The site said the decline was not driven by a sudden collapse in demand or a surprise inventory build. Instead, traders stripped out part of the war premium that had lifted prices toward October highs as U.S. midterm results raised hopes for a quicker end to the conflict with Iran.

OilPrice.com reported the sharpest part of the sell-off came after Democrats regained control of Congress. That result increased expectations for political gridlock in Washington and raised the possibility that a Democratic Congress would press the White House to wind down the war.

High gasoline prices had become a major political issue, according to OilPrice.com. Vice President JD Vance blamed the conflict for Republican losses, while President Trump indicated there were no immediate plans for new strikes against Iran. The market interpreted those developments as reducing the odds of another major escalation.

OilPrice.com said WTI had been supported for months by the threat of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, but traders moved to take profits as the political path appeared to shift toward de-escalation.

For Bakken operators, the live WTI level is the benchmark against which many local barrels are valued. A -$3.42 differential means producers and royalty owners in North Dakota's primary oil-producing region are receiving WTI minus $3.42 per barrel.

De-escalation signals also appeared in product markets. OilPrice.com reported Asia’s fuel oil refining margins and benchmark prices slumped this week after the U.S. midterm outcome boosted hopes that more oil products could move out of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to OilPrice.com, citing Reuters and LSEG data, the refining margin for high-sulfur fuel oil in Asia plunged to a discount of $2.29 per barrel on Thursday, compared with a premium of $5.34 per barrel on Monday.

OilPrice.com, citing Reuters and Kpler data, reported fuel exports from the United Arab Emirates to Singapore and Malaysia surged to an eighth-month high in October at about 729,000 metric tons.

The Dubai benchmark curve also showed contango: the November contract traded at a discount of about $2 per barrel to the December contract at the start of this week, according to OilPrice.com, citing traders and brokers. That was the first sign since July that current Middle East supply was abundant.

Physical flows have been gradually rising for the past two months as Gulf producers accelerated shuttle shipping through Hormuz with ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, once tankers cleared the chokepoint, OilPrice.com reported.

Taken together, the live prices, weekly WTI loss and softer Asian fuel oil signals point to a market reducing the value of Middle East supply risk. For the Bakken, that means lower benchmark crude prices and a still-negative differential of -$3.42.