Oil Prices Drop as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Looms, Bakken Differential Holds

Oil prices declined sharply in Thursday morning trading, with global benchmarks pressured by the imminent reopening of a key Middle Eastern shipping chokepoint. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $74.57 per barrel, down $1.44 (-1.89%), while Brent crude fell $1.06 to $78.49 per barrel, according to live price data. Natural gas held relatively steady at $3.13. Bakken crude traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus WTI.

The price drop follows reports that the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen, unleashing a wave of pent-up supply onto the global market. According to OilPrice.com, more than 60 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are waiting to exit the Persian Gulf and head to Asian markets. Analysts expect tanker traffic to recover fully by the end of July.

This impending supply surge has prompted major investment banks to slash their oil price forecasts. Morgan Stanley now sees Brent averaging $80 per barrel in Q4 2026, down from a previous Q3 forecast of $100, according to OilPrice.com. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 forecast to $80 from $90 per barrel.

The supply disruption had significantly impacted major importers. India's energy import bill soared by 81.6% year-over-year in May to $18.7 billion, according to a separate OilPrice.com report, as the country paid higher prices for alternative cargoes from regions like the Americas. A reopening Strait and softer prices are expected to ease this pressure.

Amid the bearish global price sentiment, a significant commercial deal in the Bakken highlights the ongoing value of regional midstream infrastructure. Vivakor, Inc. announced a one-year crude oil transaction expected to generate approximately $115 million in annualized revenue, according to a company statement. The deal covers roughly 120,000 barrels per month (4,000 barrels per day) and will utilize Vivakor's pipeline-connected facilities in Stanley and Beaver Lodge, North Dakota.

"This transaction demonstrates the value of integrating commodity marketing with physical infrastructure," said Vivakor CEO James Ballengee. The agreement brings Vivakor's total estimated contracted revenue opportunities for 2026 to approximately $300 million.

For Bakken operators, the widening differential—with Bakken crude trading at a deeper discount to WTI—could pressure wellhead revenues in the near term if the global price decline holds. However, the Vivakor deal underscores that access to efficient gathering and transportation infrastructure remains a critical factor for securing market access and commercial value for Bakken production, even in a volatile price environment.