Oil Prices Surge Over $90 Amid Iran Tensions, Trump Statement Causes Intraday Dip

Oil prices posted significant gains on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closing above $91 per barrel despite an intraday dip following a statement from former President Donald Trump. According to live price data, WTI settled at $91.14, a gain of $2.86 or 3.24%. Brent crude rose to $103.83, up $3.63 or 3.62%. The price for Bakken crude, a key benchmark for North Dakota producers, traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel to WTI.

The day's trading was dominated by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report from OilPrice.com, prices had jumped earlier in the week as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the critical shipping chokepoint. This escalated the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East, a primary driver behind the week's bullish trend.

Market volatility increased around midday Thursday following a social media post from former President Trump. OilPrice.com reported that Trump declared "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" in November. The statement caused a temporary pullback in prices, though the market remained firmly higher for the session. The report noted that the statement contradicted earlier media speculation, including from The Atlantic, which said the Pentagon had been asked to prepare strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised before the November elections.

For operators in the Bakken formation, the surge in benchmark prices is a positive signal, though the realized price is tempered by the regional differential. A WTI price above $90 provides strong cash flow potential at the wellhead, supporting drilling and completion budgets. The current Bakken differential of -$3.42 is relatively narrow, indicating healthy demand for the region's light, sweet crude.

In contrast to the rally in oil, natural gas prices edged lower on Thursday, trading at $3.13 per MMBtu, down $0.07. This continues a trend of divergence between the oil and gas markets.

The immediate price action underscores the market's acute sensitivity to Middle East supply risks. According to the OilPrice.com report, Iranian leaders remain suspicious of Trump's statements, and negotiations are described as 'stalemated'. With tanker attacks continuing, the risk premium in oil prices is likely to persist, providing underlying support. For Bakken producers, sustained high prices will bolster economic activity in the Williston Basin, though operators will continue to monitor the differential and geopolitical developments closely.