WTI Surges Past $95, Brent Tops $100 on Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices surged in early Monday trading, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude crossing the $95 per barrel mark as renewed geopolitical friction and supply concerns bolstered the market. WTI settled at $95.74, a gain of $3.33 or 3.6% for the day. The global benchmark, Brent crude, broke through the $100 threshold to $100.52, up $3.08 or 3.16%.

The primary driver of the rally was a stalemate between the United States and Iran over negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. According to OilPrice.com, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to begin peace talks over the weekend, rekindling fears that liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil supply through the strait would not return to normal soon. This comes as Europe approaches winter with historically low gas storage levels.

The price move was reflected in intraday trading, with Rigzone reporting Brent oil was up more than three percent. The tight global LNG market, with most Qatari supply offline, contributed to the bullish sentiment for all hydrocarbons.

Separately, analysis from Goldman Sachs, reported by OilPrice.com, warned of potential ripple effects from a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports. The bank's analysts noted such a ban could initially lower diesel prices but would soon lead to higher gasoline prices as refinery output adjusted. Once storage filled, gasoline prices could rise by an estimated $0.30 per gallon per week. A diesel ban would also push up fuel prices in Europe, a major buyer of U.S. energy commodities.

For Bakken operators, the high outright price for WTI crude is a positive signal, but the region's crude is trading at a discount. The live price data showed the Bakken differential at -$3.42 versus WTI, meaning Bakken crude is priced at approximately $92.32. While this discount captures transportation costs, the strong underlying benchmark price still supports wellhead economics. The renewed focus on global supply security underscores the value of stable, domestic production from shale basins like the Bakken.

In contrast to the rally in oil, natural gas prices saw a slight decline, with the benchmark price down $0.09 to $3.14.