Tuesday, August 25, 2026

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☀️Morning Wire7:00 AM CST

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Slump Amid Asian Demand for US Crude, Elevated Shipping Costs

Front-month WTI crude oil futures traded at $81.84 on Tuesday morning, down $3.17 or 3.73% from the prior close. The global benchmark Brent crude was at $87.53, down $3.01 or 3.32%. North Dakota's Bakken crude price differential was $3.42 per barrel below WTI. The day's price decline comes despite continued bullish pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict, which has choked Middle Eastern oil supply and disrupted global shipping. According to a report from OilPrice.com, the war has caused benchmark crude prices to rise about 25% since it began in late February, with spikes into the $100s. A major factor supporting prices has been a massive surge in shipping costs, particularly for crude moving through or near the Strait of Hormuz. Freight rates for a VLCC from Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura to India have soared 411% to $4.34 per barrel in August, from $0.85 per barrel before the war. War-risk insurance...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 25

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds Steady at 35, Up 12 from July

North Dakota's active drilling rig count remained unchanged at 35 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, according to the latest live rig data. The figure showed no movement from the previous day, with no new rigs added, none removed, and none reporting a change in location. The current count represents a slight increase of one rig compared to one week ago, when the state reported 34 active rigs on August 18, 2026. The more significant trend is visible over the past month, with the active fleet rising by 12 rigs since July 26, 2026, when the count stood at 23. This sustained level of activity indicates continued investment by operators in the Williston Basin, with the rig count serving as a leading indicator of future oil production. The Bakken formation is North Dakota's primary oil-producing region, and rig activity is closely watched by analysts, royalty owners, and service companies as a...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 25

Daily Activity

DMR Approves Four New McKenzie County Permits for Phoenix Operating

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources approved four new drilling permits on Monday, August 24, 2026, all for a single operator in McKenzie County. According to the DMR Daily Activity Report, Phoenix Operating LLC received approval for a four-well pad in the Charlie Bob field. The approved permits, 43244 through 43248, are for the SWENSON FED 31-6-7-18 1HF through 4HF wells. All are located in the NE NE of Section 31-146N-98W in McKenzie County. This concentrated permitting activity highlights ongoing development in the core of the Bakken formation. In other regulatory activity, several wells were released from confidential status, making their production data publicly available. Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC had two wells released: the BB-STATE-151-96-2526H-12 in McKenzie County and the EN-EDWARDS-157-94-2203H-2 in Mountrail County's White Earth field. Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation also had a well, the DOBIAS 5203 44-32 3B in McKenzie County's Glass Bluff field, released...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 25

Global Markets

Iran Sanctions, China Demand Peak Shape Global Oil Outlook

Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and a major downward revision to China's oil demand outlook are creating a mixed global backdrop for Bakken crude prices. While new U.S. sanctions threaten supply, emerging demand concerns could cap gains. The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions on Monday, August 24, targeting Iran's trade partners under "Operation Economic Outcast," according to a report from OilPrice.com. The action sanctioned 60 individuals, entities, and tankers, with oil trade remaining a prime target. In response, Iran's economy minister Ali Madanizadeh threatened an aggressive retaliation, stating, "Our defense is no longer so defensive; the enemies should wait for an attack." However, analysts noted the latest sanction list did not include major Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iran's oil trade, as the U.S. is reportedly unwilling to risk Chinese retaliation. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, taking in over 80% of the country's exports. The ongoing Strait...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 25

Regulatory

Texas Oil Regulator Elects New Chairman

The Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), the state's powerful oil and gas regulator, has elected a new chairman, according to a report from Rigzone. The leadership change was confirmed on Monday, August 24. While the RRC governs operations in Texas, its regulatory decisions and philosophical direction are closely monitored by operators in North Dakota's Bakken formation. The commission's approach to permitting, environmental rules, and industry support often influences broader regulatory discussions nationwide. For Bakken operators, a change in leadership at a major state commission like the RRC can signal potential shifts in regulatory tone. A more industry-friendly stance in Texas could bolster arguments for streamlined regulations elsewhere, while a focus on stricter enforcement might presage a wider regulatory tightening. The Bakken industry frequently compares its regulatory landscape with those of other major oil-producing states. The incoming chairman stated, "I am deeply honored," Rigzone reported. The specific policy priorities of the...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 25

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

The Midday Take

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Drop Over 3% on Renewed Iran Negotiation Hopes

Front-month crude oil futures fell sharply in midday trading Tuesday, with both major benchmarks shedding more than 3% as hopes for a negotiated settlement with Iran resurfaced. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October delivery was trading at $82.21 per barrel, down $2.80 or 3.29%. Global benchmark Brent crude traded at $87.45, down $3.09 or 3.41%. The sell-off was triggered by market sentiment shifting on the potential for diplomatic talks, according to a report from OilPrice.com. The report stated that Pakistan's mediation efforts have offset earlier bullish momentum, with participants hoping for a negotiated settlement regarding Iran. This comes despite intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, including a maritime blockade that has choked Iran's August crude exports to an average of only around 0.3 million barrels per day, compared to a 2025 average of 1.7 million b/d. For Bakken operators, the price drop is compounded by a weakening local differential. The Bakken...

🔆Midday Wire·Aug 25

Global Markets

Global Refining Shifts, Attacks Tighten Fuel Markets, Impacting Bakken

China's largest oil refiner is planning a major business transformation as domestic fuel sales collapse, while Ukrainian drone attacks continue to disrupt Russian refining capacity, creating a complex global market for fuels that ultimately influences Bakken crude oil prices. Sinopec, the world's biggest refiner, reported that domestic consumption of refined products in China fell 8.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, according to a company release cited by OilPrice.com. Gasoline demand dropped 7.9% and diesel fell 11.5%, a decline the company attributed to high prices and accelerated substitution by new energy vehicles. In response, Chairman Hou Qijun stated the company will allocate more capital to new energy and chemicals by decade's end. "Gasoline was made for cars, yet half of new cars no longer need fuel ... Under these circumstances, how can producing more gasoline and diesel continue to generate revenue?" Hou told analysts, according to the source. Concurrently,...

🔆Midday Wire·Aug 25

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Plunge Over 4% Despite Tight Global Supply Signals

Front-month crude oil futures fell sharply in trading Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settling at $81.08 per barrel, down $3.93 or 4.62%. The global benchmark Brent crude fell 5.18% to $85.85. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead followed WTI lower, with its differential holding at a discount of $3.42 per barrel, according to live price data. The steep decline comes amid conflicting signals in the physical crude market. According to a report from OilPrice.com, U.S. refiners are bracing for a new supply squeeze as seasonal maintenance in Canada's oil sands is expected to cut production by 300,000 barrels per day in September. This comes as U.S. crude inventories are at their lowest level in 12 months, leaving little buffer to offset the loss. Canadian producers normally send about 4 million barrels of heavy crude daily to U.S. refineries. Simultaneously, there is evidence of increased export activity from...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 25

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Rises to 36 as Two New Rigs Spud

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota increased by two on Tuesday, reaching a total of 36, according to live rig data from Bakken Wire. This marks a net gain for the day, with zero rigs released from service. Two new rigs commenced operations. Devon Energy Williston, L.L.C. spud the NOBLE 4 rig at a location in McKenzie County (152-101-14). Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC started drilling with the ENSIGN 532 rig in Williams County (156-98-3). Activity also included two rig moves. Murfin Drilling Company, Inc. relocated the PATTERSON 290 rig to a new well site in Dunn County (141-96-33). Separately, IRON OIL OPERATING, LLC moved the NABORS B 12 rig to a location in Mountrail County (154-89-9). The latest figures continue a steady climb in Bakken drilling activity over recent weeks. The current count of 36 rigs represents an increase of two from one week ago, when...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 25

Regulatory

UK Fiscal Pressures Raise Global Tax Concerns for Bakken Operators

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has signaled that tax increases could be part of the looming Autumn Budget, citing strained public finances and a commitment to fully fund any new spending. This development, while occurring overseas, underscores a global climate of fiscal pressure that can influence investor sentiment toward energy-producing regions like the Bakken. According to a report from OilPrice.com, Burnham, during a visit to Ukraine, acknowledged the challenging fiscal position. "I won’t be unrealistic, and people really need to understand that," he stated. "We are in a challenging position; whatever I do will be carefully thought through, it will be funded, and there will be no more to come as we go into the Autumn." Chancellor John Healey faces limited room for maneuver following a surprise public-sector borrowing deficit of £1.8 billion in July, which overshot market expectations. Economic analysis cited in the report suggests severe constraints. Capital Economics...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 25

Global Markets

Norway's Troll Gas Acceleration Sustains European Supply, Affects Global Balance

Norway has commenced production from the second stage of its Troll Phase 3 gas development several months early and under budget, accelerating 55 billion cubic meters of supply to Europe, according to a report from OilPrice.com. The move reinforces Norway's role as Europe's primary pipeline gas supplier, a factor that influences the global gas market dynamics that ultimately affect Bakken energy prices and export opportunities. The project, which started production on August 22, does not add new reserves but brings forward existing gas from the Troll West reservoir. This helps sustain high delivery levels from the Troll A platform and Kollsnes processing plant as other Norwegian fields decline. Equinor reported the development cost tens of millions of dollars below the original $1.2 billion estimate. The accelerated gas volume is equivalent to almost two years of French gas demand, with the potential to add up to 7 billion cubic meters in...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 25