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BAKKEN WIRE
Crude Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Concerns; Bakken Discount Widens - Bakken Wire
Oil Prices

Crude Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Concerns; Bakken Discount Widens

WTI tops $91 as analysts raise forecasts, while Bakken crude trades at a deeper discount to the benchmark.

Bakken Wire Staff·🔆Midday Wire·

Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with global supply concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz providing support despite a reported weekly build in U.S. crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery was trading at $91.32 per barrel, a gain of $1.94 (2.17%) on the day. The international benchmark Brent crude was at $98.78, up $2.62 (2.72%). Bakken crude at the wellhead was priced at a $3.42 discount to WTI.

The price strength follows a Reuters poll showing analysts have significantly raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as hopes fade for a quick resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to OilPrice.com. The September survey put the average 2026 Brent forecast at $89.05 per barrel, up from $85.08 in August. The WTI average forecast rose to $83.90 from $80.20.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters no longer expect a full restoration of Hormuz traffic soon, with HSBC describing the waterway as “structurally impaired,” according to the report. Despite this, Goldman Sachs estimates total Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark exports, have recovered to roughly 23.3 million barrels per day, matching their 2025 average.

U.S. inventory data provided a mixed picture. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the week ending September 25, bringing commercial stockpiles to 427.3 million barrels, which is 2% above the five-year average, OilPrice.com reported. However, distillate inventories, which include diesel, fell by 2.3 million barrels and are now 14% below the five-year average, indicating strong demand.

Total U.S. oil demand, measured by products supplied, averaged 20.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 2.1% year-over-year. Distillate demand was particularly strong, averaging 3.8 million barrels per day, up 5.2% from last year.

For Bakken operators, the widening discount of Bakken crude to WTI, now at -$3.42, means realized prices are not keeping pace with the gains in the headline benchmark. This differential pressure can squeeze margins for producers in North Dakota's premier oil play. The global supply tightness and strong distillate demand highlighted in the reports are supportive for the overall market, but local pricing remains a key factor for Bakken profitability.

Market observers are also looking to OPEC+. The producer group is expected to keep its current production targets unchanged when members meet on Sunday, according to Reuters sources cited by OilPrice.com.

Source

Live Price Data, OilPrice.com (September 30, 2026), Rigzone (September 30, 2026)

oil priceswtibrentbakken differentialeiainventoriesstrait of hormuzopec+

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