Wednesday, September 30, 2026

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☀️Morning Wire7:00 AM CST

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Oil Prices

WTI, Brent Rally as Supply Constraints Outweigh China Demand Concerns

Front-month oil futures rose sharply on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining 1.64% to settle at $90.85 per barrel, according to live market data. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 1.81% to $97.90. The price for Bakken crude traded at a differential of -$3.42 versus WTI. The rally occurred despite bearish signals from the world's largest crude importer. Analysts at consultancies FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have revised down their projections for China's crude oil imports in the fourth quarter by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to a report from OilPrice.com. They now expect imports of 9.2-9.3 million bpd, well below last year’s average of 11.6 million bpd. High prices are cited as a primary constraint. Chinese independent refiners, known as "teapots," are struggling with crude prices above $100 per barrel for Brent and the effective disappearance of cheaper supply from Iran and Venezuela due to...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 30

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds Steady at 30

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota remained unchanged at 30 on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, according to live rig data. No new rigs were added, none were removed, and there were no rigs that moved location in the latest daily report. This static daily figure continues a broader trend of declining activity in the Bakken formation. Compared to one week ago, on September 23, 2026, the active rig count is down by one rig. The longer-term trend shows a more significant pullback in drilling operations. The current count of 30 active rigs represents a decline of six rigs from the level seen just one month ago on August 31, 2026, when 36 rigs were operational. This month-over-month decrease highlights a sustained reduction in capital deployment toward new drilling across the Williston Basin. A stable rig count can reflect a period of evaluation by operators following shifts in...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 30

Daily Activity

Six New Permits Issued to Phoenix and Enerplus in Divide, Dunn Counties

North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources approved six new drilling permits on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, according to the agency's daily activity report. The permits were split between two operators, with activity focused in the state's western counties. Phoenix Operating LLC received two permits in Divide County. The permits are for the HOBBIT 30-31-6-7 1H-LL well in the CORINTH field and the HOBBIT 29-32 4H well in the WILDROSE field, both located in Township 160N, Range 97W. Enerplus Resources USA Corporation was approved for four permits in Dunn County. The permits are for the MHA OAT 4892 21-19 4B, MHA MILLET 4892 21-19 5B, MHA GRAIN 4892 21-19 6B, and MHA BARLEY 4892 21-19 7B wells, all located on LOT 2. The report also listed several confidential status changes for existing wells. A Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC well (36271) in McKenzie County was listed, along with a Formentera Operations,...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 30

Operator News

Texas Regulator Urges Oilfield Theft Reporting, Highlighting Industry-Wide Issue

Texas Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian has publicly urged oilfield operators to report theft incidents, according to a statement highlighted on the Texas Railroad Commission's (RRC) website recently and reported by Rigzone. The call from a major oil-producing state's regulator brings renewed attention to the costly problem of oilfield crime, which impacts operators across all major basins, including North Dakota's Bakken. While the statement originates from Texas, the issue of equipment and material theft is a significant concern for Bakken operators as well. Theft of valuable items such as crude oil, diesel fuel, tools, valves, and even heavy equipment like pumps and trailers can directly impact a company's bottom line and operational efficiency. These losses contribute to increased operating costs, which can affect the economic viability of wells, especially in a volatile price environment. The Texas Railroad Commission's public emphasis on reporting is a reminder that law enforcement and regulatory bodies...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 30

Global Markets

Global Trade Shifts, Supply Moves Pressure Bakken Oil Pricing

Global crude trade flows are shifting as India, a major market, increases imports from the Middle East while reducing purchases of Russian oil, according to data from Kpler reported by OilPrice.com. This realignment, alongside new Russian export restrictions, creates a mixed pricing environment for Bakken crude as winter demand approaches. India imported an average of 3 million barrels per day from the Middle East in September, a return to pre-war levels, while its daily average for Russian crude fell to 1.75 million barrels from 2.1 million in August, OilPrice.com reported. Despite the decline, Russia remains India's largest single supplier, and Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia stated, "Russia remains a central part of India’s crude import basket, and we do not see the latest decline as India moving away from Russian barrels altogether." India's total crude imports rose to 5.3 million barrels daily in September. The shift comes as the U.S. threatens...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 30

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

The Midday Take

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Oil Prices

Crude Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Concerns; Bakken Discount Widens

Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with global supply concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz providing support despite a reported weekly build in U.S. crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery was trading at $91.32 per barrel, a gain of $1.94 (2.17%) on the day. The international benchmark Brent crude was at $98.78, up $2.62 (2.72%). Bakken crude at the wellhead was priced at a $3.42 discount to WTI. The price strength follows a Reuters poll showing analysts have significantly raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as hopes fade for a quick resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to OilPrice.com. The September survey put the average 2026 Brent forecast at $89.05 per barrel, up from $85.08 in August. The WTI average forecast rose to $83.90 from $80.20. Analysts surveyed by Reuters no longer expect a full restoration of Hormuz traffic soon, with...

🔆Midday Wire·Sep 30

Global Markets

Global LNG, China Demand Shifts Signal Mixed Signals for Bakken

Two major long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreements were announced Wednesday, according to Rigzone, creating a potential floor for global gas markets that can influence associated gas economics in the Bakken. Cheniere Energy secured a 22-year contract to supply LNG to Brazil's state-owned Petrobras, Rigzone reported. Separately, Sempra announced a 20-year agreement to supply approximately 0.8 million metric tons per annum of LNG to the same Brazilian company. These deals signal sustained international demand for natural gas, which can support global gas prices. For Bakken producers, whose wells often produce significant volumes of associated natural gas alongside crude oil, stronger global gas fundamentals can improve the economics of gas capture and reduce flaring pressures in North Dakota. However, the oil market outlook faced a headwind as a nascent recovery in Chinese oil demand has begun to falter, Rigzone reported in a separate story. China is a key global oil...

🔆Midday Wire·Sep 30

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Rally, Brent Tops $97 as Bakken Differential Widens

Oil prices climbed in Wednesday trading, with global benchmark Brent crude rising nearly 2% to top $97 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the primary U.S. benchmark, gained 1.07% to settle at $90.34 per barrel, according to live price data. The rally pushed Brent crude to $97.90 per barrel, an increase of $1.74. Natural gas prices held steady at $3.01 per MMBtu. For Bakken producers, the price received for their crude is typically set at a differential to WTI. That differential widened to -$3.42 on Wednesday, meaning Bakken crude is priced at a discount of $3.42 per barrel below the WTI price. A wider negative differential can offset gains in the benchmark price for North Dakota operators. With Wednesday's WTI price at $90.34, the implied price for Bakken crude at the wellhead would be approximately $86.92 per barrel, before further adjustments for transportation and quality. The broader price rally...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Sep 30

Rig Report

Bakken Rig Count Rises to 33 with Three New Rigs

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota increased by three on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, to reach a total of 33. According to live rig data, no rigs were removed or moved location, resulting in a net gain of three new rigs since yesterday. The new activity was spread across three counties in the Bakken formation. Koda Resources Operating, LLC spudded the STONEHAM 17 well in Divide County. Devon Energy Williston, L.L.C. added two rigs, one for the NOBLE 4 well in Dunn County and another for the NABORS B 13 well in McKenzie County. The current rig count of 33 represents an increase of two rigs compared to one week ago, when the state reported 31 active rigs on September 23. However, drilling activity remains below the level seen a month ago. The count is down by three rigs from the 36 active rigs reported on August...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Sep 30