Oil Prices Mixed Amid OPEC Quota Talks, Supply News
WTI dips slightly as Brent gains, with Iraq's push for higher output adding to long-term supply questions.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $86.70 per barrel on Friday, down 13 cents, while global benchmark Brent crude edged up 17 cents to $93.95. Natural gas futures rose 4 cents to $2.80. The price for Bakken crude at the Clearbrook, Minnesota, hub traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel to WTI.
The modest divergence between the benchmarks comes amid news from OPEC+ that could influence future global supply. According to a report from OilPrice.com, Iraq is pushing to more than double its oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within six years, up from roughly 4 million bpd before the Iran war. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi stated the goal on Friday, the same day Iraq dispatched ministers to Saudi Arabia to argue for a higher production quota within the OPEC+ alliance.
The cartel has hired consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton to assess member nations' maximum sustainable capacity, with findings due by the end of September. These assessments will inform negotiations for 2027 production baselines. A higher baseline for Iraq would allow it to pump more oil, but the country faces significant infrastructure hurdles, including reliance on the constrained Strait of Hormuz for exports, to reach its ambitious targets.
Separately, Norway's Equinor secured a three-year supply deal with Poland's ORLEN, Rigzone reported. The agreement covers five to more than nine million metric tons of crude oil annually, reinforcing stable Atlantic Basin supply flows.
For Bakken operators, the stable but wide discount to WTI reflects ongoing midstream constraints and competition with Canadian and other domestic crudes. The current price environment, with Brent holding near $94, continues to support profitable drilling in the core of the play. However, the long-term prospect of major producers like Iraq seeking to significantly ramp up output adds a layer of uncertainty to the global supply outlook, which could pressure prices in the coming years if such volumes materialize.
The immediate price action suggests a balanced market weighing steady demand against potential future supply increases and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Source
Live price data, OilPrice.com, Rigzone
