Thursday, October 1, 2026

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☀️Morning Wire7:00 AM CST

The Morning Take

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge as Brent Tops $100, Bakken Differential Narrows

Front-month WTI crude oil futures rose 1.44% to trade at $91.72 per barrel on Thursday, October 1, 2026, while international benchmark Brent crude surged 2.14% to breach the $100 mark at $100.13. The price for Bakken crude at the Clearbrook, Minnesota, hub traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus WTI. Natural gas prices edged lower, down $0.05 to $2.98 per MMBtu. The rally is supported by analyst commentary flagging a stabilizing market. According to Rigzone, analysts at J.P. Morgan pointed to a "remarkable recovery," noting that the Middle East's key oil export arteries are flowing again. This suggests a normalization of supply routes that had previously been disrupted, contributing to market confidence. However, the global market is seeing increased competition for buyers. In a move that pressures other crude grades, including those from the U.S., Iraq's state oil marketer has deepened its official selling price discounts for October....

☀️Morning Wire·Oct 1

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 33 Amid Mixed Trends

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota was unchanged for a second consecutive day, holding steady at 33 on Thursday, October 1, according to live rig data from Bakken Wire. The data showed no new rigs added, none removed, and no rigs moving location since Wednesday's report. Despite the daily stability, the current activity level represents a net increase from one week prior. On September 24, the state reported 30 active rigs, meaning the count has risen by three rigs over the past seven days. However, the broader monthly trend shows a contraction in drilling. The current tally of 33 rigs is down three from the 36 rigs reported active on September 1, indicating a slight pullback over the past month. The rig count is a closely watched leading indicator for future oil production in the Bakken formation and broader Williston Basin. A stable count in the low...

☀️Morning Wire·Oct 1

Daily Activity

DMR Approves Six New Permits, Nine Renewals in Divide, Bowman Counties

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) approved six new drilling permits and nine permit renewals in its latest daily activity report, with activity concentrated in Divide County. According to the report, Phoenix Operating LLC was the most active filer, securing five of the six new permits. All five of Phoenix Operating's new permits are for the Alkabo field in Divide County. The permits are for the TOP GUN 30-19-18-7 1HF through 4HF wells and the ROOSTER 29-20-17-8 4HF well, all located in the NW NE of section 31-162N-102W. The sixth new permit was issued to Marlo Operating Company, LLC for a confidential wildcat well named TOSCO BRANCH 2 in Bowman County. Koda Resources Operating, LLC was the most active in the permit renewal category, accounting for seven of the nine renewals. According to the DMR report, five of Koda's renewed permits—the BOCK 2133-6BH, 7BH, and 8BH in the...

☀️Morning Wire·Oct 1

Global Markets

China Halts Fuel Exports, Tightening Global Market

China's refiners have halted fuel exports until further notice, a move that analysts say could further tighten the global fuel market. According to a report from OilPrice.com, multiple sources briefed on the matter confirmed the halt on Thursday, October 1, 2026. The state major PetroChina has canceled some gasoline and jet fuel cargoes that were expected to be shipped in October. This follows a pattern from earlier in the year when China suspended exports to protect domestic supply, only to remove most restrictions in mid-July. Fuel exports then recovered, with refiners exporting 6.01 million tons of petroleum products in August, a 12.7% year-on-year increase. However, new restrictions appear to be in place for October. Chinese authorities did not authorize fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau ahead of the Golden Week public holiday starting October 1. It is unclear if exports will resume after the holiday ends on October 7....

☀️Morning Wire·Oct 1

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

The Midday Take

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge on Supply Concerns, Bakken Differential Steady

Oil prices rallied sharply in midday trading Thursday, October 1, with global benchmark Brent crude surging past the $101 per barrel mark. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also posted strong gains, providing a lift to Bakken shale operators despite the region's ongoing price discount. As of midday, WTI crude was trading at $92.43 per barrel, a gain of $2.01 or 2.22%. The international benchmark Brent crude was at $101.35, up $3.32 or 3.39%. The price spread between Brent and WTI widened to nearly $9 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Bakken crude differential was holding at a discount of $3.42 below the WTI price, according to live price data. The significant price move has analysts focused on the widening gap between the two primary benchmarks. Rigzone reported speaking with analysts from PRICE Futures Group and B. Riley Wealth to examine the WTI-Brent spread. A wide spread can indicate tighter physical supply conditions in...

🔆Midday Wire·Oct 1

Global Markets

Amplitude Energy's East Coast Project Advances, Potential New Outlet for Bakken Crude

Amplitude Energy is proceeding with its East Coast Supply Project (ECSP), a development that could create a new market for Bakken crude oil, according to a report from Rigzone. The project is slated to begin production in 2028. The ECSP is set to be developed using existing infrastructure, Rigzone reported. This approach typically suggests the project may involve repurposing pipelines, terminals, or processing facilities to move crude oil to East Coast refineries or export terminals. For Bakken operators and royalty owners in North Dakota, new market outlets are critical for maintaining profitable operations and wellhead prices. The Williston Basin has historically faced pipeline capacity constraints, making access to coastal markets a priority. A project targeting the East Coast could offer an alternative to traditional Gulf Coast destinations. The timeline for the ECSP aligns with the long-term planning cycles of major Bakken producers. A 2028 production start gives operators several years...

🔆Midday Wire·Oct 1

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Extension, Brent Tops $102

Global oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent crude closing above $102 per barrel, following the OPEC+ alliance's decision to extend its current production cuts through the end of the year. The move solidifies tight supply in the physical market amid robust seasonal demand. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $92.95 per barrel, a gain of $2.53 or 2.8%. The international benchmark, Brent crude, saw an even stronger increase, rising $4.27 or 4.36% to $102.30 per barrel, according to live price data. The price rally was further supported by a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. commercial crude inventories, indicating strong domestic demand and tightening supplies ahead of the winter heating season. This combination of extended OPEC+ discipline and bullish inventory data provided a powerful catalyst for the day's gains. For Bakken operators, the rising price environment is amplified by a narrowing discount for local crude. The Bakken differential tightened to...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Oct 1

Rig Report

Bakken Rig Count Climbs to 34, Adding 2 New Rigs

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota's Bakken formation rose to 34 on Thursday, October 1, 2026, marking a net increase of one rig from the previous day. According to live rig data, two new rigs were added and one was released. Phoenix Operating LLC activated the PATTERSON 280 rig in Divide County at location 160-98-14. In Williams County, HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC spudded a new well using the NABORS X27 rig at 156-98-3. The sole rig released was Zavanna Energy Operating, LLC's NABORS X28, which had been operating in Williams County at 153-99-3. One rig changed locations, with ENERPLUS RESOURCES USA CORPORATION moving the PATTERSON 286 rig to a new site in Dunn County at 148-92-19. The current activity represents a notable weekly gain. The rig count has increased by four since September 24, 2026, when 30 rigs were active. However, the count remains two rigs...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Oct 1

Global Markets

Global Diesel Squeeze Tightens as Middle East Exports Rise, China Halts Shipments

Global oil markets are sending mixed signals to Bakken operators, with Middle East crude exports staging a recovery while a severe worldwide shortage of diesel and other refined products intensifies, according to industry reports from October 1. Crude exports from the Middle East hit their highest level in September since the war with Iran began eight months ago, analysis shows. Investment bank JP Morgan reported September exports were at 98 percent of pre-war levels, calling it "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war." This rebound, driven by the use of alternative pipelines and shipping routes, increases global crude supply which can weigh on the price benchmarks linked to Bakken crude. "The risks to shipping have not disappeared," the report noted, citing an incident where three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on September 30. However, analysts suggest the dangers have been priced in by the market....

🌅Afternoon Wire·Oct 1