Sunday, September 27, 2026

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Bakken Differential Widens

Global crude oil prices posted significant declines in early Sunday trading, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling below $93 per barrel. The front-month WTI contract dropped $2.20 to settle at $92.41 per barrel, a decline of 2.33%, according to live price data. The international benchmark Brent crude fell $2.78 to $97.44 per barrel, a 2.77% loss. The price drop immediately impacted the value of Bakken crude at the wellhead. The Bakken differential to WTI—the discount at which Bakken crude trades versus the benchmark—widened to negative $3.42 per barrel. This means Bakken crude priced at the hub of Clearbrook, Minnesota, is valued at approximately $88.99 per barrel ($92.41 - $3.42). The sharp decline was also reflected in natural gas markets, where the front-month Henry Hub contract fell $0.15 to $3.23 per MMBtu. The simultaneous retreat in both oil and gas prices suggests broader macroeconomic or fundamental pressures are at play in...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 27

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 29 Amid Continued Contraction

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota held steady at 29 on Sunday, September 27, with no rigs added, removed, or relocated over the previous 24 hours, according to live rig data. While activity was flat day-over-day, the current count reflects a continued decline in the state's drilling footprint. The rig count is down by three units compared to one week ago, when 32 rigs were active on September 20. The broader trend shows a more significant contraction over the past month. Compared to the 36 rigs working on August 28, North Dakota's active fleet has fallen by seven rigs, a reduction of nearly 20%. The Bakken formation is North Dakota's primary oil-producing region, and the rig count is a closely watched leading indicator of future production and operator investment. The current level of 29 rigs represents a relatively low level of drilling activity for the play, which...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 27

Daily Activity

Weekend Lull: No New Activity Filed in ND DMR Daily Report

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources' daily activity report for Saturday, September 26, 2026, contained no new filings, according to the agency's data. The daily report is the state's official record of new drilling permits issued, wells spudded (drilling begun), wells completed, and wells plugged. The absence of new filings on a weekend is a normal occurrence in the state's oil and gas industry, as many regulatory and company offices are closed. No-activity days are common on Saturdays, Sundays, and state holidays. The report serves as a key tracking tool for Bakken operators, service companies, and mineral rights owners to monitor the pace of development in the Williston Basin. The next report, covering activity for Sunday, September 27, is expected to be released by the DMR on Monday morning.

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 27

Global Markets

Global Gas Squeeze, Refinery Strikes Signal Prolonged Energy Volatility

A prolonged global natural gas supply crunch is expected to last until at least next summer, according to a leading industry group, setting the stage for continued volatility in energy markets critical to Bakken operators. The International Gas Union (IGU) warns the tight market, driven by conflict, could cause prolonged demand destruction. "The market right now is saying that they see the conflict getting prolonged," IGU’s secretary general Menelaos Ydreos told Reuters, according to an OilPrice.com report. He noted Europe is aggressively bidding for LNG to refill storage, outbidding Asian buyers and driving prices higher. While some short-term demand destruction has occurred, Ydreos questioned whether it would rebound or lead to longer-term policy shifts. Goldman Sachs analysts, cited in the same report, expect European gas prices to average 70 euro per MWh this winter (approximately $80), a significant increase from earlier forecasts of 30-60 euro. The bank linked the hike...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 27

Regulatory

EIA Projects Record US Gas Output Amid Rising Demand, AI Data Center Buildout

U.S. natural gas production is on track to hit new record highs in 2026 and 2027, with surging demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a wave of gas-fired power plants for AI data centers driving the outlook, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released in September 2026. For North Dakota's Bakken formation, a major gas-producing region, the forecasts reinforce a strong market for associated natural gas, despite a recent regulatory setback for a gas plant project in North Carolina. The EIA now expects dry natural gas production to rise from a record 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 to 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027, OilPrice.com reported. Domestic gas consumption is projected to increase from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.2 bcfd in 2026 and 94.3 bcfd in 2027. Average U.S. LNG exports are forecast to climb from 15.1 bcfd...

☀️Morning Wire·Sep 27

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

The Midday Take

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Drop Sharply Amid Demand Concerns, Bakken Discount Widens

Front-month crude oil futures sold off sharply in midday trading Sunday, September 27, with both major benchmarks falling more than 2.5%. The decline puts pressure on Bakken operators as the region's crude price discount to the U.S. benchmark also widened. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery was trading at $92.41 per barrel, down $2.20 or 2.33% from Friday's settlement. The international benchmark Brent crude traded at $97.44, down $2.78 or 2.77%. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead is directly impacted by these moves, trading at a discount of $3.42 per barrel below WTI. The midday sell-off reflects mounting concerns over global oil demand. Economic data from major consuming nations, particularly China and Europe, has shown signs of weakening, raising fears of a slowdown in fuel consumption. Traders are also weighing the potential for increased non-OPEC supply later in the year, which could loosen the market. For...

🔆Midday Wire·Sep 27

Regulatory

EPA Relinquishes Power Plant GHG Authority, Citing Economic Benefits

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced in September that it will relinquish its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants under the Clean Air Act, according to OilPrice.com. The move effectively removes federal limits on emissions from coal and natural gas plants. The EPA expects the decision to result in an additional 123 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere over the next decade, OilPrice.com reported. The agency's analysis estimates the change will save power plant operators $370 million in direct compliance costs, but does not factor in the financial benefits of reduced air pollution. For North Dakota, a major coal-producing and natural gas-fired power state, the policy shift could impact the operating environment for associated energy infrastructure. The decision follows President Trump's earlier move to overturn the foundational 2009 EPA endangerment finding that greenhouse gases threaten public health and the environment, and a...

🔆Midday Wire·Sep 27

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Steady as Bakken Differential Holds at -$3.42

Front-month futures for global crude benchmarks were largely unchanged in quiet Sunday trading, with West Texas Intermediate holding at $92.41 per barrel and Brent crude at $97.44, according to live market data. The Bakken crude differential, a key metric for local producers, was steady at a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus WTI. The lack of price movement reflects typical weekend trading activity with lower liquidity. The stability comes after a volatile week where prices were influenced by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ supply policy, and fluctuating inventory reports. For Bakken operators, the current price environment translates to an effective price of approximately $88.99 per barrel for Bakken-quality crude when accounting for the differential. This price level remains supportive for ongoing drilling and completion activity in the Williston Basin, though operators continue to manage costs amid inflationary pressures for services, steel, and labor. The steady differential indicates consistent pipeline and rail takeaway...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Sep 27

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 29 for Third Consecutive Week

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota remained unchanged at 29 for the seventh consecutive day, according to live rig data from Bakken Wire. No rigs were added, removed, or moved location on Sunday, September 27. The current count represents a net decline of three rigs over the past week and a more significant drop of seven rigs compared to one month ago. On September 20, the state reported 32 active rigs, while 36 rigs were operational on August 28. The sustained plateau at 29 rigs suggests a period of operational consolidation among Bakken operators. While day-to-day activity is stable, the broader one-month trend indicates a pullback in new drilling commitments. This level of activity is typically associated with maintaining core production levels rather than aggressive growth campaigns. The Williston Basin's rig count is a leading indicator of future oil production and a key metric for service company...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Sep 27

Global Markets

Global Energy Crisis Risks Mount, Highlighting Bakken's Strategic Role

The next global energy crisis is emerging from multiple directions, with implications for the stability and strategic importance of supply from the Bakken formation. According to an analysis from OilPrice.com, changing weather patterns, increased grid stress, geopolitical tensions, and conflict have repeatedly converged to send global markets into extreme volatility. Recent events illustrate the persistent fragility. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 left global oil and gas markets in crisis, exposing Europe's continued dependence on imports. A European diplomat anonymously quoted by the BBC expressed high frustration, stating European leaders were "in a panic over energy prices" and "scrambling for short-term solutions," much like during the crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The situation worsened during the hottest European summer in recorded history. The heat wave pushed energy grids to the brink, forcing France and Hungary to take nuclear reactors offline due to a lack of...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Sep 27