Sunday, May 3, 2026

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Drop Over 2% Amid SPR Release, UAE OPEC Exit

Front-month WTI crude oil futures fell sharply to $101.94 per barrel in early trading Sunday, down $3.13 or 2.98 percent. The global benchmark Brent crude declined to $108.17, a drop of $2.23. The Bakken oil price differential to WTI was $-3.42 per barrel. Natural gas prices saw a marginal increase to $2.78. The price decline is attributed to two major supply-side developments. According to Rigzone, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is continuing the "swift execution" of a massive 172 million barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). On May 1, the DOE issued a Request for Proposal for an emergency exchange of up to 92.5 million barrels from SPR sites including Bayou Choctaw and Bryan Mound. Bids are due May 4. This action is part of a coordinated 400 million barrel release by International Energy Agency member nations. The DOE stated this builds on three previous exchanges that...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 23 for Fifth Consecutive Week

North Dakota's active drilling rig count remained unchanged at 23 on Sunday, May 3, 2026, according to live data from Bakken Wire. The tally showed no new rigs added, no rigs removed, and no rigs that moved location since the previous day. The stability extends across a longer timeframe, with the count also holding at 23 one week ago, on April 26, 2026. Furthermore, the rig count has been locked at this level for over a month, matching the 23 active rigs reported on April 1, 2026. This prolonged plateau suggests a period of capital discipline and operational consistency among Bakken operators. After the volatility of previous years, a steady rig count can indicate a focus on drilling within cash flow, optimizing existing well performance, and executing on defined development plans rather than pursuing aggressive growth. The current count of 23 rigs is a fraction of the historic peaks seen...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Daily Activity

DMR Daily Activity Report Shows No New Filings for Saturday

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) daily activity report for Saturday, May 2, 2026, contained no new filings, according to the agency's data. No new drilling permits, well completions, spud notices, or plugging reports were recorded. The DMR daily report is a key regulatory snapshot of industry activity in the Bakken formation and broader Williston Basin. It typically lists new permits approved for drilling, notices that drilling has commenced (spud), reports of well completions, and filings for well plugging operations. This data provides operators, royalty owners, and market analysts with timely insight into the pace of development. Days with no new activity filings are common, particularly on weekends and state holidays when regulatory offices are closed and field operations often slow. The absence of new permits or spuds on a single day does not indicate a trend, as weekly and monthly totals provide a more accurate picture of...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Operator News

Exxon, Chevron Beat Q1 Profit Estimates Despite Iran War Outages

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings as higher oil and natural gas prices outweighed production outages from the Iran war, according to Rigzone. The results, while surpassing analyst estimates, underscore a volatile global energy market impacting major operators with significant interests in North Dakota's Bakken formation. Surging energy prices boosted Exxon’s first-quarter earnings by $1.7 billion, more than offsetting a $400 million blow from war-related production outages, Rigzone reported. However, roughly 15% of Exxon’s worldwide output remains offline, Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said. Exxon’s adjusted profit was $4.9 billion, or $1.16 a share, which was 20 cents higher than the average analyst estimate. Chevron, while less exposed to Middle East disruptions, saw production dip roughly 5% sequentially. Its adjusted per-share profit reached $1.41, or 51 cents higher than expected, benefiting from surging prices and growth from its new stake in a giant Guyanese field. Both...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Global Markets

Global Oil Inventories Cushion Shock, China Resumes Fuel Exports

Global oil inventories are serving as the primary shock absorber for markets strained by conflict, with 280 million barrels already drawn since the crisis began, according to a J.P. Morgan analysis. This dynamic directly impacts the price environment for Bakken crude, which competes in a global market now reliant on stored barrels to balance supply losses. Natasha Kaneva, J.P. Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy, and her team noted in a report that the world began 2026 with 8.4 billion barrels in storage. However, they warn that only an estimated 800 million barrels are realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. "In this war driven oil shock, inventories have become the market’s primary balancing mechanism," the analysts said, according to Rigzone. The report highlights that of the total inventory, about 5.2 billion barrels are crude, with 3.2 billion in refined products. The analysts also distinguish between commercial stocks...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Global Markets

Strait Closure, Standing Rock Legacy Mark Global Energy Landscape

Global oil prices remained elevated Friday as a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz persisted, while in North Dakota, the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) continues to operate ten years after the historic Standing Rock protests, according to recent reports. The key Middle Eastern waterway remains effectively closed, with both Iran and the US maintaining restrictions. Iran delivered a new proposal to Washington via Pakistan on Friday, but its contents were not disclosed, Rigzone reported. US President Donald Trump vowed to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports, claiming it deprives Tehran of oil revenue. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the blockade would further push up oil prices. Brent crude traded around $110 a barrel on Friday, according to Rigzone, while West Texas Intermediate settled near $102, notching a second straight weekly gain of roughly 8%. Analysts cited the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Operator News

Caturus JV Hits 1Bcfd, OKEA Profits Rise, Global LNG Deals Advance

A joint venture between Kimmeridge Energy Management and Mubadala Investment Co has boosted its net production to over 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) following a major acquisition, positioning it among the top U.S. private gas producers. According to Rigzone, Caturus HoldCo LLC completed the purchase of the Galvan Ranch asset in South Texas from SM Energy Co for $950 million on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The transaction adds approximately 60,000 net acres and about 250 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d) of production from 260 wells, as of December 2025. Caturus CEO David Lawler stated the asset is complementary to their existing portfolio, enhancing reliability for Gulf Coast gas demand. The venture, originally Kimmeridge's SoTex HoldCo, was rebranded as Caturus in 2025 after Mubadala acquired a 24.1 percent stake. Its strategy integrates upstream production with its downstream asset, Commonwealth LNG in Louisiana, which is permitted to export...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Hormuz Blockade Stresses Global Oil System, Lifts Trader Profits

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is placing the global energy system under "extreme stress" and risks critical oil shortages, according to industry leaders. Chevron Corp. CEO Mike Wirth issued the warning in a May 2 interview, stating concern that global oil supplies are running dry as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran enters its third month. The Strait, a vital shipping lane traditionally responsible for carrying a fifth of all seaborne oil and gas traffic, remains severely restricted. According to OilPrice.com, the deadlock has led to the loss of hundreds of millions of barrels of crude since the war began. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy estimated that by the time flows resume, nearly 1 billion barrels of supply could be permanently lost from the market. This disruption has created a volatile trading environment that major oil companies are leveraging. BP reported that its trading desk posted a profit...

☀️Morning Wire·May 3

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

The Midday Take

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Slide Midday Sunday as SPR Release, OPEC Tensions Weigh

Front-month WTI crude oil prices fell sharply in midday trading Sunday, May 3, dropping $3.13 (-2.98%) to $101.94 per barrel. Brent crude followed, declining $2.23 (-2.02%) to $108.17. The Bakken crude differential held at a discount of $3.42 per barrel below the WTI benchmark. The price pressure coincides with a major U.S. government action to increase near-term supply. According to Rigzone, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is continuing the "swift execution" of a 172-million-barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). On May 1, the DOE issued a Request for Proposal for an emergency exchange of up to 92.5 million barrels of crude from the SPR's Bayou Choctaw, Bryan Mound, Big Hill, and West Hackberry sites. This is part of a coordinated 400-million-barrel action by International Energy Agency member nations. The DOE stated this historic release is being executed under President Trump's direction to "address short-term oil flow disruptions...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Operator News

Exxon, Chevron Beat Q1 Profit Estimates Despite War Outages

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., two of the largest operators in North Dakota's Bakken formation, posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings as higher oil and natural gas prices outweighed production outages stemming from the Iran war. Both companies surpassed analyst profit estimates, according to a Rigzone report. Surging energy prices boosted Exxon’s first-quarter earnings by $1.7 billion, more than offsetting a $400 million blow from war-related production outages. Roughly 15% of Exxon’s worldwide output remains offline, Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said. Exxon’s profit excluding one-time items was $4.9 billion, or $1.16 a share, which was 20 cents higher than the average analyst estimate. For Chevron, adjusted per-share profit reached $1.41, or 51 cents higher than expected. The company benefited from surging prices for crude and gas, though its production dipped roughly 5% sequentially. Chevron had less exposure to Middle East disruptions than Exxon. Despite the earnings beat, the outlook for...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Global Markets

Global Inventory Buffer Tightens as War Shock Absorbs 280 Million Barrels

Global oil inventories are acting as the primary shock absorber for the market following supply disruptions, with 280 million barrels already drawn down since the crisis began, according to a J.P. Morgan analysis. The report, sent to Rigzone on Thursday, states the world began 2026 with 8.4 billion barrels in total storage, but only an estimated 800 million barrels are realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. J.P. Morgan analysts, including head of global commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva, noted that unlike typical disruptions where spare production can be mobilized, the immediate adjustment has had to come from storage. "In this war driven oil shock, inventories have become the market’s primary balancing mechanism," the analysts said. Of the total inventory, roughly 5.2 billion barrels are crude and 3.2 billion are refined products, with about 1.8 billion barrels held afloat. The analysis highlights that visibility into these stocks varies widely,...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Global Markets

Global Tensions, Pipeline Legacy Shape Bakken Landscape

Global oil prices remained volatile and elevated Friday as a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran left the critical Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, according to Rigzone. Brent crude traded around $110 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled near $102, notching a second straight weekly gain of roughly 8%. The stalemate centers on control of the strait, a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Both the U.S. and Iran have signaled they are waiting for the other to move first before easing restrictions, Rigzone reported. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed Thursday to keep control of Hormuz and not give up nuclear or missile technologies. Chevron Corp. CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC the global energy system is "under extreme stress" and expressed worry about supplies running...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Operator News

Kimmeridge-Mubadala JV Hits 1Bcfd, OKEA Profits, Court Blocks Trump Permitting Rule

A federal judge has blocked a Trump administration policy that required Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to personally approve all solar and wind projects on federal lands and waters, according to a report from OilPrice.com. Judge Denise J. Casper in Massachusetts issued a preliminary injunction in April, ruling the policy unlawful and likely violating federal statute. The policy was challenged by a coalition of renewable energy developers who argued it relegated wind and solar to "second-class status" and aimed to delay their development. The report states the administration's actions over the last year have delayed or canceled approximately 57.2 GW of renewable capacity. In major natural gas sector news, Caturus HoldCo LLC—the joint venture between Kimmeridge Energy Management Co LLC and Mubadala Investment Co—has increased its net production to over 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) following a major acquisition, Rigzone reported. The company completed the purchase of the Galvan...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Hormuz Closure Stress Mounts; Global Supply Loss Hits 1B Barrels

The ongoing military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has locked in a loss of roughly 1 billion barrels of global crude supply, according to the world's largest independent oil trader, with no resolution in sight. Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, stated last week that by the time flows could potentially resume, the cumulative loss would reach that figure, as an estimated 600 million to 700 million barrels have already been lost, according to OilPrice.com. The deadlock at the chokepoint, which handled a fifth of daily global oil and LNG flows before the Iran war began two months ago, continues to place severe stress on worldwide energy markets. Chevron Corp. CEO Mike Wirth echoed these concerns on Friday, warning that the "global energy system continues to be under extreme stress." He stated there is "no get-around" with the effective closure and expressed concern that if supply is not reestablished,...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Production Data

Bakken Production Outlook Faces Pressure Amid Falling Prices, Low Rig Count

North Dakota's oil production outlook is facing headwinds as key indicators—rig activity and crude prices—point toward potential constraints on future output growth. As of Sunday, May 3, 2026, the state's active rig count stands at 23, according to live Bakken data. Historically, the rig count serves as a leading indicator for production trends in the Bakken formation. A sustained low number of drilling rigs typically translates into fewer new wells being completed, which can eventually lead to a plateau or decline in overall oil production as the output from existing wells naturally declines over time. The current count of 23 rigs is a critical data point for assessing the trajectory of North Dakota's output in the coming months. Simultaneously, crude oil prices have retreated, providing another signal about near-term operator activity. Live data shows WTI crude trading at $101.94, down $3.13 or 2.98% on the day. Brent crude is at...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

Workforce & Community

Bakken Rig Count Holds at 23 as Oil Prices Retreat from Highs

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota held steady at 23, according to the latest Bakken Wire data. This count provides a key indicator for employment and economic activity in the region's oil-producing communities, even as crude oil prices saw a significant midday decline. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $101.94 per barrel, down $3.13 or 2.98% for the day. The international benchmark Brent crude fell to $108.17. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead is typically discounted against WTI; the current differential is -$3.42. Natural gas was priced at $2.78 per MMBtu. In the Bakken formation, the rig count is a leading indicator for direct and indirect employment. A count in the low 20s, sustained over time, suggests a stable but far-from-booming demand for oilfield workers including drillers, completions crews, and truck drivers. This level of activity is unlikely to trigger the severe housing...

🔆Midday Wire·May 3

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Geopolitical, Supply Factors Dominate Outlook

Front-month WTI crude futures were unchanged Sunday, holding at $101.94 per barrel, while Brent crude was flat at $108.17. The Bakken differential to WTI was -$3.42. Natural gas traded at $2.78 per MMBtu. The static price action belies significant underlying market forces, including a major U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve release and fracturing within OPEC. According to Rigzone, the U.S. Department of Energy is continuing its "swift execution" of a 172-million-barrel SPR exchange, issuing a Request for Proposal for up to 92.5 million barrels on Thursday. Bids are due by May 4. The DOE stated this action is part of a coordinated 400-million-barrel release by International Energy Agency member nations. Simultaneously, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is facing a historic challenge. The United Arab Emirates' decision to withdraw from OPEC "represents the most significant fracture in the organization’s 66 year history," according to a Wood Mackenzie analysis reported by...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Rig Report

Bakken Rig Count Holds at 23 for Third Consecutive Week

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota's Bakken formation remained unchanged at 23 for the Sunday, May 3, 2026, reporting period, according to live rig data from Bakken Wire. There were no new rigs added, no rigs removed, and no rigs that moved location since yesterday's count. This marks the third consecutive week of stability at the 23-rig level. Historical context shows the count was also 23 active rigs one week ago, on April 26, 2026. Furthermore, the rig count has shown no movement for over a month, having also been reported at 23 rigs on April 1, 2026. The prolonged flatline in drilling activity reflects a period of capital discipline and steady operational tempo among Bakken producers. With commodity prices and service costs in a holding pattern, major operators have maintained consistent but conservative development plans for their core acreage. The lack of rig additions or subtractions...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Operator News

Exxon, Chevron Beat Q1 Profit Estimates Despite Middle East Outages

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., two of the largest operators in the Bakken, reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter profits despite production outages stemming from the Iran war, according to a report from Rigzone. The results highlight how surging global energy prices are currently outweighing operational disruptions for major producers with assets in North Dakota. Surging energy prices boosted Exxon’s first-quarter earnings by $1.7 billion, more than offsetting a $400 million blow from war-related production outages, the company said. Roughly 15% of Exxon’s worldwide output remains offline, Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said in an interview. Chevron's production dipped roughly 5% sequentially, but its per-share profit still surpassed every analyst estimate. Both companies had warned Wall Street last month about negative impacts from the Middle East conflict. For Bakken-focused operations, the earnings beat underscores the direct benefit of higher oil prices. International oil prices have advanced more than 50% since the conflict...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Trump Approves 'Keystone Light' Pipeline With Potential Bakken Tie-Ins

U.S. President Donald Trump has approved a major new pipeline project with potential future implications for Bakken crude oil takeaway capacity. On Thursday, Trump signed a presidential permit authorizing the Bridger Pipeline Expansion, a project dubbed "Keystone Light," according to a report from OilPrice.com. The 647-mile, 36-inch pipeline is proposed by Bridger Pipeline LLC, a subsidiary of True Companies. It would transport Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border in Phillips County, Montana, to Guernsey, Wyoming, at an estimated cost of $2 billion. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, targeting completion by late 2028 or early 2029. While its primary stated purpose is to move up to 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Canadian crude, company maps and plans show the project includes potential tie-ins for North Dakota's Bakken shale oil field. The design provides access to a significant portion of Bridger's existing North Dakota gathering network. "This optionality positions...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Global Markets

Global Oil Inventories Cushion Shock, But Stress Mounts for Bakken

Global oil inventories are serving as the primary shock absorber for a market strained by supply losses, according to a new J.P. Morgan analysis. For Bakken producers, this drawdown on stored barrels is the key mechanism preventing even sharper price spikes and providing a temporary buffer for global supplies. J.P. Morgan analysts, including head of global commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva, stated in a report that inventories have become the market's main balancing mechanism in the current conflict. "Unlike a typical disruption where spare production capacity can be mobilized quickly, the location of the shock and the scale of current supply losses mean the immediate adjustment has to come from barrels already in storage," the analysts said, according to the report published by Rigzone. The world entered 2026 with an estimated 8.4 billion barrels in storage, a result of rebuilding stocks in 2024 and 2025 after a period of draws. However,...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Global Markets

Global Tensions, Pipeline Legacy Shape Bakken Outlook

Global oil markets remained volatile Friday as a fragile ceasefire and closed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued to threaten the key Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for world crude flows. According to Rigzone, the stalemate has kept the strait effectively closed, contributing to a global energy crisis and sharp price swings. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled near $102 a barrel on Friday, May 1, though it posted an 8% weekly gain. Brent crude traded around $110, according to the reports. Traders are weighing diplomatic signals, with Iran delivering a new talks proposal via Pakistan while U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Analysts warn the prolonged closure will further drain global storage and require higher prices to destroy demand. For Bakken producers, the sustained geopolitical premium supports higher price realizations for crude shipped to coastal refineries. However, the situation underscores...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Operator News

Kimmeridge-Mubadala JV Hits 1Bcfd, USGS Finds Appalachia Lithium

Caturus HoldCo LLC, a joint venture between Kimmeridge Energy Management and Mubadala Investment Co., has increased its net production to over 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) following a $950 million acquisition, according to Rigzone. The purchase of the Galvan Ranch asset in South Texas from SM Energy Co. adds approximately 60,000 net acres and 250 MMcfe/d of production from 260 wells, positioning the JV among the top 10 private pure-play U.S. gas producers. Caturus CEO David Lawler stated the assets enhance reliability for Gulf Coast gas demand. The JV's downstream arm, Commonwealth LNG, is fully commercialized with long-term supply agreements secured with major traders including Aramco, EQT, Glencore, Mercuria, and Petronas, Rigzone reported. The Louisiana LNG project, permitted to export up to 9.5 million metric tons per year (approx. 1.21 Bcfd), expects a $12.5 billion first-phase investment. SM Energy CEO Beth McDonald said the sale closure marks progress...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3

Pipeline & Infrastructure

Legal Setback for Trump Energy Policy, Hormuz Deadlock Extends Supply Risk

A federal judge has blocked a Trump administration policy that required Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to personally approve all renewable energy projects on federal lands, according to a report from OilPrice.com. The ruling, issued in April by Judge Denise J. Casper in Massachusetts, found the policy unlawful and issued a preliminary injunction against it. The policy was challenged by a coalition of renewable energy developers who argued it relegated wind and solar to "second-class status" and aimed to delay their development to enhance the position of oil and gas. The legal setback for the administration's energy agenda comes as a prolonged blockade at the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrict global oil supply. As of May 1, the deadlock at the critical chokepoint shows no sign of resolution, with Iran controlling vessel movements and the U.S. enforcing a naval blockade, OilPrice.com reported. The disruption has led to the loss of...

🌅Afternoon Wire·May 3